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Re: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P update - $18 crude oil



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It always amazes me when those who did not 
participate
IN the 1930's problem cannot see the unbelievable 
facility
that the current administration has had for averting a 
similar
fiasco.
 
I'm a Texan and I know Bush is not a genius at 
economic
policy BUT HE HAS HAD THE SENSE TO LISTEN TO 
THOSE
HE HIRES AS ADVISORS WHO ARE SUPPOSED TO 
KNOW WHAT THE CONSEQUENCES/REWARDS ARE
FOR A GIVEN SET OF POLICIES.
 
In my mind, Norman's evaluation of the situation is 
something
to be applauded and used as a basis for further 
investment
considerations.
 
Clyde
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  - - - - - - -Clyde 
Lee   
Chairman/CEO          (Home of 
SwingMachine)SYTECH 
Corporation          email: <A 
href="">clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx  7910 
Westglen, Suite 105       
Office:    (713) 783-9540Houston,  TX  
77063               
Fax:    (713) 783-1092Details 
at:                      
www.theswingmachine.com- - - - 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  - - - - - - - -
 
 
<BLOCKQUOTE 
>
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  >From: 
  Norman 
  Winski 
  To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  
  Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 8:54 
  PM
  Subject: Re: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P 
  update - $18 crude oil
  
  DG,
   
    I am talking about the closest thing to 
  the 2000 Stock Market Bubble top was 1929.  Had Greenspan
  and the Bush administration not engaged in a 
  campaign of aggressive spending and massive fiscal
  expansion, it is very likely we would have had a 
  1930s style depression.  In contrast to Bush and Greenspan, at the 1929 
  top, the Fed and the Hoover administration pursued a balanced budget policy 
  and relatively tight fiscal policy. Of course, there are no free 
  rides.  The stimulative policy of Bush and Greenspan traded a sharp 
  economic downtown in exchange for time. It will take many years to pay 
  off
  the debt incurred, which will no doubt somewhat 
  hamper future economic growth.  However, given the probable outcomes, 
  that was the lesser of the two evils when we consider the possibility for a 
  1930s style depression or a 1990s stuck in a rut Japanese style economy. 
  
   
  Regards,
   
  Norman
   
  Regards,
   
  Norman 
   
   
    ----- Original Message ----- 
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  >
    <DIV 
    >From: 
    Dan 
    Goncharoff 
    To: <A 
    title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    
    Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 9:24 
    PM
    Subject: Re: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P 
    update - $18 crude oil
    I am quite sure I don't understand your question.The 
    depression of the 1930s was caused by raised tariffs that choked off world 
    trade --  a form of anti-globalization in extremis. There was no threat 
    of that recently, and therefore no lurking depression to avert.I 
    also do not understand the phrase "major generational bubble collapse". I 
    know tech stocks collapsed, but I don;t see where that is "generational". 
    Housing, which is certainly generational, hasn't collapsed. What are you 
    really talking about?RegardsDanGNorman Winski wrote:
    
      
      

      Mark,
       
          Since you brought it up, 
      perhaps you could elaborate on why you think Bush averting a 1930s style 
      depression coming off a major generational bubble collapse represents a 
      disastrous track record?
       
      Thanks,
       
      Norman
      <BLOCKQUOTE 
      >
        <DIV 
        >----- 
        Original Message ----- 
        <DIV 
        >From: 
        Mark 
        Simms 
        <DIV 
        >To: 
        <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
        href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
        
        <DIV 
        >Sent: 
        Saturday, August 07, 2004 7:29 PM
        <DIV 
        >Subject: 
        RE: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P update - $18 crude oil
        
        IMHO only 
        in conjunction with a severe worldwide recession or depression will we 
        see that $18 price.
        But given 
        Japan's and Bush's disasterous economic track record, it's a 
        possibility.
        Wild card 
        is China...will they make dumb policy decisions ?
        Russia 
        has already proven it's stupidity.
        <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
        >
          <FONT face=Tahoma 
          size=2>-----Original Message-----From: mr.ira [<A 
          class=moz-txt-link-freetext 
          href="">mailto:mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: 
          Saturday, August 07, 2004 2:52 PMTo: <A 
          class=moz-txt-link-abbreviated 
          href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: 
          Re: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P update
          We saw it several years back and we could 
          see it again.  It is $3 oil that we will never see again in our 
          life time.  One can thank Henry Kissinger for that one. 
          
          <BLOCKQUOTE 
          >
            <DIV 
            >----- 
            Original Message ----- 
            <DIV 
            >From: 
            Mark 
            Simms 
            <DIV 
            >To: 
            <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
            href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
            
            <DIV 
            >Sent: 
            Saturday, August 07, 2004 10:47 AM
            <DIV 
            >Subject: 
            RE: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P update
            Bear market $18 crude oil....will we see that in 
            our lifetime ?> -----Original Message-----> 
            From: topos8 [<A class=moz-txt-link-freetext 
            href="">mailto:topos8@xxxxxxx]> 
            Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 10:32 AM> To: <A 
            href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> 
            Subject: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P update>>> 
            --- In <A 
            href="">gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, 
            "topos8" <topos8@x...> 
            wrote:> I last updated my bond and stock forecasts in GG# 
            26884, May 13, 2004.>> At the moment my square of 9 
            calculations say that the S&P's will> make a low at 1055 
            this week and then rally to or above the 1200> 
            level.>> The market has completed the three peaks part 
            of a George Lindsay> style, "three peaks and a domed house 
            formation" (March, April and> June are the three peaks in the 
            S&P) and the current break is the> separating decline. 
            Normally the subsequent rally that traces out the> domed 
            house part of the pattern ends the bull market and also ends> 
            what Lindsay called a basic advance. However, my calculations 
            using> Linday's guidelines say that the current basic advance 
            began in March> 2003 and is likely to last into the second 
            half of 2005. Even an 8> month rally (the typical duration of 
            a "domed house" rally) from a> low now would not last into 
            the second half of 2005.>> I think this conflict will 
            be resolved in one of two ways.>> The first way is the 
            pattern I have been expecting for the past year.> In this 
            pattern the March top is iself only the first peak of a> 
            larger three peaks formation that lasts through the end of 2004; 
            in> this scenario the second peak still lies ahead (early 
            November 2004> and about 1250 in the S&P?) and the third 
            peak (January 2005 ?) will> be lower than the second. After 
            the third peak in January 2005 the> separating decline will 
            carry to 1075 in the S&P and last 1-3 months> from the 
            third peak. After the 1075 low we then will see a domed> 
            house rally that carries the S&P up to 1350 in the fall of 
            2005.>> The second resolution is becoming more and 
            more likely given the> degree of pessism I currently think I 
            see in public investment> perceptions. In this scenario, the 
            market rallies to 1350 in April-> June of 2005, then goes 
            into a 6 month trading range (something like> March-September 
            2000) and then begins a new bear market.>> In either 
            scenario I expect the next bear market to extend through> 
            most of 2006 and carry the S&P from about 1350 down into the 
            850-950> range.>> In my May 13 message I said 
            that the bonds were about to begin a> rally from the 103 
            level in the futures that would last 4-8 weeks and> carry the 
            market up no more that 6 points. In the event we have seen> a 
            rally that has carried the market up nearly nine points over a 
            12> week span.>> I now think that this bond 
            rally is nearly over. I can see the bonds> moving up a bit 
            more into the 112-00 to 112-16 range(vs. a high of> 111-26 
            yesterday) but first the market will probably drop to 
            109-08.> The 10 year notes reached the 113-10 level yesterday 
            and have the> potential to get to get up to 114-16. First 
            they will probably drop> to 111-16. The next big downleg will 
            probably carry the bonds down> into the 100-102 range and 
            that may well be the bear market low for> bonds.  The 
            notes will drop to 104 but I think lower lows for the> notes 
            will evntually be seen as the yield curve continues to 
            flatten> substantially.>> I thought crude would 
            top in the $41-42 range in May but all we got> was a break to 
            $35. I now think that the bull market high will occur> in the 
            $45-47 range and that the next bear market will carry down 
            to> $18.>> Carl> --- End forwarded 
            message --->>>>>>> 
            Yahoo! Groups 
            Links>>>>>>
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