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Take any reasonably volatile chart.
Look for one of those price jumps that gives fantastic system backtest
results, if you happen to be on the right side of the trade at the
time.
Run your optimization on this data set.
Notice how the optimization results tailors itself to fit this single
profitable trade? Would you have been able to trade this unusual
event profitably, considering a very likely horrendous price slippage?
Is this pattern likely to return in the future, or was it a one-off
event?
Price action and its complex fundamental circumstances, change from
chart to chart, as well as within each chart.
Optimizing/curve-fitting (and Neural processing on the wrong data set)
in reality, is just plain old fool's gold.
jose '-)
http://users.bigpond.com/prominex/pegasus.htm
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "David" <junk@xxxx> wrote:
> I thought I would post something that has been rattling me lately.
> What is the consensus about optimizing systems for individual
> securities? I tended to stay away from this practice as it seems
> more ideal to find a system that performs better across entirely
> different markets and securities, because the average is probably
the
> most consistent. However, backtesting seems to show that it is
> possible to show consistent results when optimizing for individual
> securities. I would assume that individual securities do contain a
> certain element that makes them perform similarily over time. When
> looking at GBP/USD it is obvious to see that this pair trends in a
> different way then does USD/JPY. So I'd like to know some other
> opinions on what people think of individually optimizing.
>
> Best Regards,
> David
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