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Why are the Big Pond Big Fish so Dangerous?



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<DIV><FONT size=2>One often reads that in deciding to trade the sp futures 
contract one is deciding to trade against the best traders.&nbsp; (A statement 
to this effect was made recently on this list.)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>My question is this.&nbsp; In what specific (empirically 
verifiable) way(s) is the sp contract different from others such that it is 
qualitatively more difficult to daytrade?&nbsp; I'm interested in answers along 
the lines of:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>-&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The sp contract has a greater dollar per 
average true range of bars that are day traded such that one can lose a good 
deal of money quickly.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>-&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The sp contract has a greater tendency for 
intra-day reversals than other contracts.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>-&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The sp contract impacts and in turn is 
impacted by a large range of other indices, markets, etc. and it is difficult to 
monitor all these other markets at once.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Please note that the question answers listed above are mere 
speculation on my part about how the sp might be more difficult to daytrade than 
other contracts.&nbsp; All these answers above may be correct; they also may all 
be wrong.&nbsp; I have no idea.&nbsp; I just listed them to provide a sample of 
the kind of answers to the question I was interested in.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Thanks....</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2><BR>Steven Buss<BR><A 
href="mailto:sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx";>sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx</A><BR>Walnut Creek, CA, 
USA<BR></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Thu Nov 26 09:45:29 1998
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From: "Steven Buss" <sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: SP Trading Hours (RTH and Globex)
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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>I'm working up some historical sp extract 
data.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I'm clear about current market trading hours for the sp 
contract for regular trading hours and the globex session.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Does anyone know:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>-&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; whether there have been changes in trading 
hours for the RTH sp since September 1993?&nbsp; (I don't mean holidays; I mean 
actual trading hour changes.)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>-&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; whether there have been changes in trading 
hours for the Globex session since September 1993?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>-&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; where I might find 
information on these kinds of trading hour changes.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Thanks...</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Steven Buss<BR><A 
href="mailto:sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx";>sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx</A><BR>Walnut Creek, CA, 
USA<BR></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Thu Nov 26 09:45:22 1998
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Date: Thu, 26 Nov 1998 09:14:02 -0800
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From: Ira <ist@xxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Gen: Losing Psychology.
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As I have said several times in this forum.  the mind sees in  pictures. Trade
what you see not the numbers.  The numbers will dictate risk and profit objective,
but won't tell you a profitable trade.  Ira.

Walt Downs wrote:

> Ramon and Brent,
>
> All weil put. In addition, the subconscious mind
> deals not in terms of rational thought or time, but in *images*.
> Just thinking the thought, "I will win", does not work.
> Imagining the entire episode in your head much as you would in
> a dream, does.
>
> I use imagery a lot. I imagine myself not as a "bull" or a
> "bear", but as a tiger. Tigers don't care where the market
> is going. They spend their time observing the bulls and bears.
> A Tiger looks for places he knows they hang out at, and then he
> waits for the critters to be careless. At the right moment, he
> pops up, whomps a few beasties on the head, and then disapears.
> If the situation does not turn out as he planned, he doesn't
> stop to think, he just makes tracks!
>
> Thus the subconscious is used to progarm a superior mind-set in
> which the trader becomes an *active* rather than *reactive*
> market participant.
>
> There are those who seem to feel that such uses of imagery are
> not "serious" forms of trading psychology. I'll refer those
> individuals to an intellect greater than mine:
>
> "In the search for knowledge, we must at times forget that
> which we know or have been taught. We must invent our own
> games.... in effect we must learn to play like children."
>
>                                         -- Galileo Galilei
>
> Walt Downs
> CIS Trading
> http://cistrader.com
>
> >
> > RT's,
> >
> > I have not read Elders Book but tend to agree with Ramon about the positive
> > decision making process.
> >
> > Some years ago the book Psycho-Cybernetics was very popular and although I
> > never read it at the time, I actually inherited a copy of it. After reading
> > it, it made sense to me that you can, to some extent, program your
> > subconscious mind to work for you by envisioning yourself doing and
> > succeeding at what ever you have in mind.
> >
> > I have always thought that there is a fine line between so called "positive
> > thinking" and self delusion. However, the way we learn is often a process of
> > envisioning ourselves doing something and then actually practicing doing
> > that until we have the confidence that we can do it. So I don't see this
> > kind of rehearsal as self delusion if done properly and completely. Meaning
> > that it must be done with the follow up planning, study, practice and the
> > actual gaining of experience.
> >
> > Seeing oneself as being able to be successful should not IMHO prevent a
> > person from seeing the business as something that must be carefully done in
> > order to be successful. That may mean to many that they should think of an
> > individual trade as a loser until it proves to be a winner.
> >
> > I cant believe that for example a quarter-back going into a football game
> > would be helped by saying "I am a loser".
> >
> > Brent
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: ramon <rbarros@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Date: Wednesday, November 25, 1998 6:40 PM
> > Subject: Re: Wrong Lessons for trading.
> >
> > >Hi Guys
> > >
> > >Interesting thread here.
> > >
> > >There is no doubt that the psychological aspects of trading
> > >are critical to a trader's success. For me what is important
> > >is that a trader possess a set of empowering beliefs that
> > >translate to actions which lead to success. While the
> > >empowering beliefs may be universal, the actions tend
> > >to be trader specific.
> > >
> > >Elder's approach works for him. It may or may not work
> > >for others. It wouldn't work for me as my decision making
> > >process gravitates towards the positive rather than the
> > >negative.
> > >
> > >regards
> > >
> > >ray
> > >
> > >R Barros
> > >101/25 Market Street
> > >Sydney NSW 2000
> > >Australia
> > >
> > >Voice:   61 2 92673470
> > >Fax:       61 2 92673478
> > >E-Mail:  rbarros@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >----------
> > >: From: Dennis L. Conn <dconn@xxxxxxxxx>
> > >: To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >: Subject: Re: Wrong Lessons for trading.
> > >: Date: Thursday, November 26, 1998 12:14 PM
> > >:
> > >: Hi Dave,
> > >:
> > >: When I first read it, it seemed to be exactly the opposite of the
> > >approach
> > >: I would take to trade. But the thinking behind it begins to make sense if
> > >: you can equate losing with alcoholism; according to Dr. Elder, your focus
> > >: should be on transcending the behavioral patterns that cause you to lose
> > >: consistently. If you have demonstrated a pattern that will inevitably
> > >: destroy your account, he advises using the same approach as AA - instead
> > >of
> > >: standing up and introducing yourself as an alcoholic to a group of
> > >people,
> > >: he recommends 'introducing' yourself to your computer each trading day in
> > >: the same way, substituting the word loser for alcoholic. By reminding
> > >: oneself of the tendency, one can avoid it - at least that's what I get
> > >from
> > >: it.
> > >:
> > >: Since a lot of our problems in trading stem from ingrained behavior that
> > >we
> > >: have to transcend, and from habits of thought that we need to change,
> > >maybe
> > >: there's some merit to his approach. Maybe it's an intermediate step on
> > >the
> > >: path to becoming the person one needs to be in order to be consistently
> > >: successful as a trader. Whether it works for everyone, I don't know; I do
> > >: know that when I started trading, I dismissed the psychological aspect as
> > >: unimportant. But these days I find myself more interested in that than in
> > >: any possible profits, and see as much need to examine and learn more
> > >about
> > >: myself as I once saw to examine charts and learn analysis - maybe more.
> > >:
> > >: Regards,
> > >:
> > >: Dennis C.
> > >:
> > >: -----Original Message-----
> > >: From: David Hunt <adest@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > >: To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >: Date: Wednesday, November 25, 1998 19:28
> > >: Subject: Re: Wrong Lessons for trading.
> > >:
> > >:
> > >: >I must say when Dr Elder said in his Psychology Video say to yourself "I
> > >am
> > >: >a Loser" each day before trading, he lost me.  Did anyone else have this
> > >: >effect from the book?
> > >: >
> > >: >David Hunt
> > >: >http://www.adest.com.au
> > >: >
> > >: >
> > >: >----------
> > >: >| From: RAY RAFFURTY <rraff@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >: >| To: tesla@xxxxxxx; RealTraders Discussion Group
> > >: ><realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >: >| Subject: Re: Wrong Lessons for trading.
> > >: >| Date: Wednesday, November 25, 1998 11:35 AM
> > >: >|
> > >: >|         Elder's book is quite good, but contains only about 3 chapters
> > >: >about
> > >: >| the psychology of trading.  The rest is devoted to descriptions and
> > >: >methods
> > >: >| of using some of the more basic and readily available indicators.  He
> > >: >then
> > >: >| develops these into trading systems and presents some risk management
> > >: >| techniques.  After reading it you will probably want to go to some
> > >more
> > >: >| detailed texts on the subjects that interest you.  For an excellent
> > >book
> > >: >on
> > >: >| the psychology of trading try "The Disciplined Trader" by Mark
> > >Douglas.
> > >: >|
> > >: >|                                                             Good luck
> > >and
> > >: >| good trading,
> > >: >|
> > >: >Ray
> > >: >| Raffurty
> > >: >|
> > >: >| -----Original Message-----
> > >: >| From: Terry S. Smith <tesla@xxxxxxx>
> > >: >| To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >: >| Date: Tuesday, November 24, 1998 11:11 AM
> > >: >| Subject: Re: Wrong Lessons for trading.
> > >: >|
> > >: >|
> > >: >| >Have never read Elders, Trading for a Living, but I have heard great
> > >: >things
> > >: >| >about it, maybe I will add it to my trading library. E-mail me
> > >privately
> > >: >in
> > >: >| >this matter.
> > >: >| >-----Original Message-----
> > >: >| >From: Mike Campbell <mcampbell@xxxxxx>
> > >: >| >To: tesla@xxxxxxx <tesla@xxxxxxx>; realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >: >| ><realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >: >| >Date: Tuesday, November 24, 1998 8:54 AM
> > >: >| >Subject: Re: Wrong Lessons for trading.
> > >: >| >
> > >: >| >
> > >: >| >>Terry S. Smith writes:
> > >: >| >>
> > >: >| >>> The best book I have found to unlearn basic human nature is
> > >MINDTRAPS
> > >: >| >>> UNLOCKING THE KEY TO INVESTMENT SUCCESS By Roland Barach. Before
> > >: >| >>> reading the book it did not occur to me that I needed to shift my
> > >: >| >>> perspective 180 degrees to be successful.  After reading it I
> > >began
> > >: >to
> > >: >| >>> realize why I was struggling to making any money in my investing
> > >: >| >>> persist. It lists 88 psychological snares or Mindtraps that we
> > >must
> > >: >| >>> unlearn to become successful in this business. The ISBN is
> > >: >| >>> 0-935219-07-2. Happy trading,
> > >: >| >>
> > >: >| >>How would you rate this book with respect to Elder's "Trading for a
> > >: >| >>Living"?  I'm reading that now, and it's an eye-opener for me.
> > >: >| >>
> > >: >| >>
> > >: >| >
> > >: >|
> > >: >|
> > >