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Re: RES: stock to buy- GPRE



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I read today in the San Diego Union Tribune that it takes up to 2000 gal. of water to produce 1 gal. of ethanol. The point of the editorial was that the ethanol experiment is a failed one and that the quicker we admit it the faster we can shift assets toward more productive endeavors. All in all, the ROI is not good so far.
Jack.
----- Original Message ----- From: "Gary Fritz" <fritz@xxxxxxxx>
To: <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2008 11:26 AM
Subject: Re: RES: stock to buy- GPRE


>The Brazilian ethanol production is 8x more energy efficient than corn
>ethanol.

Interesting, I didn't know that.  I wonder what's different about
growing and harvesting corn that makes sugar cane more economical?

I believe there are several factors:

* Growing sugar cane is a less energy-intensive process than growing corn.

* Sugar cane contains more sugar than corn.  :-)  The ethanol process
converts sugar into ethanol, so a high-sugar source is more efficient. Corn contains starches that must first be converted into sugars, and this cuts the
efficiency by about 30%.

I observe, also, that the whole political push behind ethanol is
based on the idea of U.S. energy independence.  We rely on the
middle east now for oil; switching to relying on Brazil for ethanol
doesn't really solve the dependency problem.

I don't think we could. Brazil consumes most of its ethanol production and still consumes 2,000,000bbl/day of oil. Even so, it exports about 1 billion gallons (not barrels) of ethanol a year -- still a drop in the bucket compared
to the US energy demand.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_fuel_in_Brazil has more info, including a claim that Brazillian ethanol production has an energy balance of 8-10. Not
sure how accurate the "up to 35x" claim is.

I suppose the U.S. could ramp up its sugar cane production, though it
would be at the expense of other crops.

I believe efficient cane production requires tropical or subtropical conditions,
which are not well met in the US other than Hawaii and maybe Florida.  We
can grow sugar beets but I suspect that suffers from the same expensive
growing process that corn does.

Gary





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