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Gene,
> Actually Mike, you got me thinking this weekend about system
> adaptability.... i.e. other than constantly "re-writing" a system to match
> the market flavor of the decade, are we stating that there is no way to
> dynamically account for this change in market character?
Not unless you have a crystal ball. I remember when the net started showing
up in the old BBS world. No one even in their wildest dreams predicted what
we have. Single stock futures - a yawn or what? Who knows? Accepting that
there is no clear path is a real tough one to come to grips with.
> If pre "95-96" existed before, it can exist again, and I'd sure as hell
not
> want to be a year into it before I scratch my head wondering why my system
> cannot cope.
Yep. In my business plan, I have drop dead scenario outlined under which I
stop trading my system. Will I be able to pull the plug? I don't know and
won't until it happens. Point is that I have a target defined before the
fact. I was forced to think my way through the possibilites. I didn't feel
comfortable doing it and I don't feel overly comfortable with the result.
That tells me that I'm too damned wedded to my system. I have no solution
for that right now.
> The question to me is twofold: What are the long term indicators (or
price
> patterns) that can quantify this sea change, and how "lagged" do we need
for
> them to be to adapt our systems at the correct speed?
I haven't the faintest. I try not to forecast or predict since I only end
up reflecting my biases. And then I start holding on to views which gets me
in all kinds of trouble. I find that I'm far more flexible when I sit back
and let the market drive the car. I have my points at which I get out of
the car because the market is going in a direction that costs me money.
Sorry that I couldn't be of more help here.
Regards,
Mike
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