|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Dimitris,
I subscribe to John Murph's newsletter (Technical Analysis of the
Financial Markets) and he thinks the bottom is in place for this year!
Regards
Tom B
Oct 15th,2002
------------------------------------------------------
"UPSIDE TARGETS... Last week, we used Elliott Waves to pinpoint the
apparent completion of a five-wave decline that started last spring --
which has led to the current rebound. In Elliott terms, after a five-
wave decline has been completed, prices will normally return to the
top of the fourth wave. That means a potential move up to the August
highs in the major stock averages. There are also Fibonacci
retracements to consider. In the case of the S&P 500, a minimum 38%
retracement of the seven-month decline would carry to about the 920
area. A full 50% retracment would carry to the August high near 965.
That's our upside target zone -- which we think will probably be
reached by January. In the case of the Dow, that would yield a
potential uspide target to 9,000 -- which we mentioned last Friday.
We're not prepared to say that we've seen the final bottom in this
secular bear market. With the market entering its strongest seasonal
period, however, (and given the history of October bottoms) we think
the time window for further gains should extend into January. After
that, we'll have to see."
--- In amibroker@xxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> wrote:
> Now I can be more specific :
> I need an indication of 12/18 or, at least, 12/21 to hint that a
> continuation is probable and the Market will remain o/b.
> I know the question is very difficult, but it is equivalent to
where
> the money is.
> I have some indications that the recent uptrend is still here,
> without interruption, but this is a bit different.
> The signal [if any] should be active after last Friday 12/18 close.
> DT
> --- In amibroker@xxxx, "Dimitris Tsokakis" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> wrote:
> > CSCO trendlines give the exact picture of the UP or DOWN dilemma
> for the next week(s).
> > We shall see a breakout, in one way or another, since the
triangle
> formation came cautiously to an natural end.
> > Market Direction indicators have already reached sharply to a
first
> peak [MACDBULL turned to 95% after two
> > days at 96%] .
> > We are in front of the most difficult T/A question, the
> continuation of the bullish reaction.
> > The market leaders have already announced the 3Q results.
> > The trend makers did not leave any room for delayed action, when
> they pushed some stocks to a +10% gap up.
> > [Many Short positions were not that profitable the last ten days
> and they were covered with significant losses]
> > Now they need the trend followers to keep on buying higher and
> higher.
> > Are these followers convinced to do that ?
> > Medium volume traders who did not buy IBM from $65 [Sept 19] to
$55
> [Oct 9], 15 full trading sessions, are forced now to buy above
> $75 !!! It sounds a bit absurd...
> > Is there any realistic perspective for such a delayed enthusiasm ?
> > 3 IBM gap ups +8%, +7% and +10% in 5 trading days is a bullish
> shock if you are out of the stock activities.
> > T/A available tools for continuation are very few and not well
> organised.
> > Any ideas to improve this sensitive area ?
> > Dimitris Tsokakis
|