|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Richard Dennis's last commodity fund went BUST as his mechanical models
failed miserably in the choppy markets of 2000. I believe they were down 50%
and refunded the proceeds to remaining investors.
there's an article on this somewhere.......I think it was Futures Mag.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Alexander [mailto:alexander@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Thursday, April 18, 2002 12:13 PM
> To: Bill Wynne; omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Under financed trader seeking solutions to trigger pulling
> issue
>
>
> Ah, if only I could be a consistently three-sigma trader...
>
> And there's the rub. For me at least. I keep thinking I can
> consistently pull
> off "tail events" at will just because one person, or even ten
> people out of
> two million did it. (Fooled by Randomness, by Taleb).
>
> BTW: Just out of curiousity, how is Richard doing now?
>
> alexander the hopeful
>
>
> --- Bill Wynne <tradewynne@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > >You run the risk of blowing out your account.
> >
> > For the vast majority of people this is very true, but
> > consider: Richard Dennis started out with $700.... Different
> > times, and I know he gave a lot back, but still: $700 to
> $500,000,000 (or
> > whatever)?
> >
> > BW
> >
> >
> > >From: Alexander <alexander@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >To: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
> > >Subject: Re: Under financed trader seeking solutions to
> trigger pulling
> > >issue
> > >Date: Thu, 18 Apr 2002 08:28:40 -0700 (PDT)
> > >
> > >This is certainly one of the more interesting threads in quite
> some time! I
> > >really appreciate everyone's insights, experiences and lessons.
> > >
> > >Bluntly put, there is only one solution to being under financed. Don't
> > >trade.
> > >Banks won't let you open a business loan unless it is enough for you to
> > >succeed. EVERY trading book says that you need enough money
> based on some
> > >simple math. Don't risk more than 2%/3% of a trading account
> on each trade
> > >and
> > >don't trade more than a quarter of your account in initial
> margin. I've
> > >done
> > >Monte Carlo simulation spreadsheets using even high percentage correct
> > >systems
> > >and it's true. You run the risk of blowing out your account.
> You might as
> > >well
> > >just send me your money, I will donate it to a monastery, you
> will gather
> > >great
> > >merit and avoid the pain of losing the money yourself.
> > >
> > >Psychologically speaking bluntly again, too small an account
> instills fear.
> > >That fear will manifest and become true out of fixating on it. From my
> > >experience, lots and lots of little losses with too tight a
> stop. Whittles
> > >my
> > >account to nothing and with each little loss my fear gets more intense.
> > >
> > >Was it Oscar Wilde or Jung that said, "We always become the
> thing we fear
> > >the
> > >most."
> > >
> > >alexander the fear-expert
>
|