[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]

RE: Amazing, Incredible OddBall version performance ?



PureBytes Links

Trading Reference Links

Do you really want everyone trading the same version of Oddball? There are
some incredible variations you might be able to develop yourself taking into
consideration gap and trend filters. In any case, I am not taking MB's gift
for granted - it's a beautiful thing.

-----Original Message-----
From: John simmonds [mailto:full_oddball_disclosure@xxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Tuesday, February 12, 2002 7:24 PM
To: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Amazing, Incredible OddBall version performance ?


To all the Omega-list: Your comments and observations as to how anybody
could get such a high level of performance out of an OddBall type system are
appreciated. I'm a pretty straightforward guy, - - - I only seek the truth.
I have not changed any numbers; all of this is exactly the same as I
received it. I have changed ISP's since October, but this has no bearing on
the facts. I include the email headers so there will be no dispute as to the
origin of these 2 messages.

I appeal to the list members: Can somebody figure this out, I asked Brown
twice but he mysteriously fails to respond . . . notice in the end of the
2nd message that he claims to have "better" OddBall systems; I don't know if
this incredible performance report he sent me is based upon a version he is
not sharing with the Omega-list - - - in any case, since he fails to respond
himself I'm forced to take this issue to the Omega-list and ask list members
for suggestions in determining how a person can get such lofty numbers. I
would think that other list members would agree that anybody who is offering
an .ela type trading system to the public (free or otherwise) should be
always be upfront and if they are furnishing "valid" performance reports on
a free, publicly disclosed system they should always be willing to furnish
the .ela and ALL inputs so others can independently verify the numbers - - -
otherwise, our spirit of cooperation and honesty is lost.

For the record, Omega-list archives show posts by Brown extolling the values
of not holding back, but instead  contributing without profit incentive,
improvements in OddBall code for the good of all list members. Several of us
have always followed this path.

Message I sent over 8 days ago:
Mark:

I've been trying to come anywhere NEAR the results of the strategy
performance report on OddBall you emailed me months ago. The 1st line
identifying your performance report states:

MB_SP07_D SP60 min  05/14/1998 - 06/28/2001

I've used your basic OddBall as well as other traders variations in
attempting to get the highest performance possible.

Your report (end of this email) shows Return on account of 2103%
and Total net profit of $816,525
as well as overall profit factor of 2.17

The "best" I can come up with for the same time period, natural hour bars, 0
comm, 0 slippage, natural hour bars, single contract, etc. is only $426,275
with a ROA of 724.03%
As I understand, no other trader working on OddBall type systems can show
any better either.


Your report shows an enormous difference from what I can get from my
computer.

Would you kindly provide the .ela and ALL inputs that you used to generate
this amazing performance report so I (and the list members) can duplicate it
(Hell, I'd be happy to get within at least 90%) . . .


****************************************************************************
***************************
Received: from psmtp.com ([64.75.1.145])
	by itouch.net (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id SAA03513
	for <whitehot@xxxxxxxxxx>; Sun, 7 Oct 2001 18:43:01 -0500 (CDT)
Received: from source ([216.88.105.93]) by exprod5mx5.postini.com
([64.75.1.251]) with SMTP;
	Sun, 07 Oct 2001 16:43:01 PDT
Received: from TRADER1 ([216.88.105.90]) by firewall.markbrown.com
          (Post.Office MTA v3.5.3 release 223 ID# 0-57451U100L100S0V35)
          with ESMTP id com for <whitehot@xxxxxxxxxx>;
          Sun, 7 Oct 2001 18:33:22 -0500
Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2001 18:42:08 -0500
From: Trader1 <trader1@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
X-Mailer: The Bat! (v1.53d) Personal
Reply-To: Trader1 <trader1@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
X-Priority: 3 (Normal)
Message-ID: <138253170299.20011007184208@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: whitehot@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: OddBall system code
MIME-Version: 1.0
X-postini-filters:     (S:0.1987410 )
X-PMFLAGS: 571998336 0 1 P6B460.CNM
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

Hello whitehot,

  make sure to use natural hour data and notice that the times are
  Chicago so you may have to adjust for eastern or whatever other time
  zone than central time.

--
Best regards,
Trader1                          mailto:trader1@xxxxxxxxxxxxx


****************************************************
=MB_OddBall


{start code}

{Data = Either the SPY SAP 500 index tracking stock or the S&P 500
commodity futures contract. Data2 = Advancing issues of the Nyse.}

if time>830 and time <=1500 then begin

Inputs: RL(7), BZ(3), SZ(1),Factor(3), Length(20);

If RateOfChange(Close Data2, RL) > BZ Then Buy;
If RateOfChange(Close Data2, RL) < SZ Then Sell;

end;

{end of code}

****************************************************************************
*****
****************************************************************************
*****

Received: from psmtp.com ([64.75.1.151])
	by itouch.net (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id KAA03293
	for <whitehot@xxxxxxxxxx>; Sun, 21 Oct 2001 10:52:22 -0500 (CDT)
Received: from source ([216.88.105.93]) by exprod5mx11.postini.com
([64.75.1.251]) with SMTP;
	Sun, 21 Oct 2001 08:52:27 PDT
Received: from [216.88.105.92] by firewall.markbrown.com
          (Post.Office MTA v3.5.3 release 223 ID# 0-57451U100L100S0V35)
          with SMTP id com for <whitehot@xxxxxxxxxx>;
          Sun, 21 Oct 2001 10:42:59 -0500
Date: Sun, 21 Oct 2001 10:51:18 -0500
From: Mark Brown <markbrown@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
X-Mailer: The Bat! (v1.53d) Personal
Reply-To: Mark Brown <markbrown@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Organization: http://www.markbrown.com
X-Priority: 3 (Normal)
Message-ID: <6868073644.20011021105118@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: whitehot@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: Oddball
In-Reply-To: <3BD2A394.6737.3F22442@xxxxxxxxx>
References: <3BD2A394.6737.3F22442@xxxxxxxxx>
MIME-Version: 1.0
X-postini-filters:     (C:0.4299518 P:0.4202386 S:0.1039707 )
X-PMFLAGS: 570949760 0 1 P2B900.CNM
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit


Hello  whitehot,

win> I'm quite impressed with the simplicity and performance of the
win> oddball S&P system.

i am too.

win> What does your tradestation system report performance summary
win> show for profit factor and other items ?


win> Could you email me a .gif file screen shot ot text file of a
win> summary ?

though ts is a poor platform for this i have attached it.

win> I'm curious if anybody has ever worked on placing additional
win> "filters" on the oddball system to obtain even better results ?

of  course.   the  performance can be improved in certain personality
stages.   however can the longevity be improved upon?  no i think not.

do   i   personally have better?  yes.  not to be arrogant, but i have
much  better.   the good thing is that you too can work upon improving
it,  it  can  be improved.  "IF" you are careful to look for longevity
and  not focus exclusively upon profits.   am i vague? yes i intend to
be.

win> What ever prompted you to be so generous to reveal this system to
win> the public ? Or is the strategy "power in numbers"; i.e., the more
win> traders placing oddball trades in the same direction the more
win> horsepower you have to influence direction  (that would only seem
win> to influence scalp trading) ?

i  am  not  so  generous, the publicity does me good in other business
areas  of  course.    i try and not take too much advantage of that, i
just  intend  to  give  scamming  vendors something to worry about.  a
bench  mark, why buy this when i can have this for free.  can what you
sell  me  work as well as this?  well they may say it does in order to
sell  it.   but time will tell the truth if it can perform as claimed.

i  intend to release progressively better and better systems one after
the other.  i have a book underway and some more magazine articles are
scheduled  as  well as my courses.  i am thinking of opening a trading
school if i can find some broker associates to cooperate with.

Have a Great Day, Mark

http://www.markbrown.com

_MB_SP07_D  SP60 min   05/14/1998 - 06/28/2001

	Performance Summary:  All Trades

Total net profit	$ 816525.00	Open position P/L	$   4050.00
Gross profit    	$1513425.00	Gross loss      	$-696900.00

Total # of trades	     631	Percent profitable	      57%
Number winning trades	     362	Number losing trades	     269

Largest winning trade	$  26000.00	Largest losing trade	$ -11125.00
Average winning trade	$   4180.73	Average losing trade	$  -2590.71
Ratio avg win/avg loss	       1.61	Avg trade(win & loss)	$   1294.02

Max consec. winners	      11	Max consec. losers	       6
Avg # bars in winners	      10	Avg # bars in losers	       7

Max intraday drawdown	$ -38825.00
Profit factor   	       2.17	Max # contracts held	       1
Account size required	$  38825.00	Return on account	    2103%


	Performance Summary:  Long Trades

Total net profit	$ 398975.00	Open position P/L	$      0.00
Gross profit    	$ 767275.00	Gross loss      	$-368300.00

Total # of trades	     316	Percent profitable	      59%
Number winning trades	     188	Number losing trades	     128

Largest winning trade	$  20000.00	Largest losing trade	$ -11125.00
Average winning trade	$   4081.25	Average losing trade	$  -2877.34
Ratio avg win/avg loss	       1.42	Avg trade(win & loss)	$   1262.58

Max consec. winners	      14	Max consec. losers	       5
Avg # bars in winners	      10	Avg # bars in losers	       7

Max intraday drawdown	$ -35025.00
Profit factor   	       2.08	Max # contracts held	       1
Account size required	$  35025.00	Return on account	    1139%


	Performance Summary:  Short Trades

Total net profit	$ 417550.00	Open position P/L	$   4050.00
Gross profit    	$ 746150.00	Gross loss      	$-328600.00

Total # of trades	     315	Percent profitable	      55%
Number winning trades	     174	Number losing trades	     141

Largest winning trade	$  26000.00	Largest losing trade	$  -9375.00
Average winning trade	$   4288.22	Average losing trade	$  -2330.50
Ratio avg win/avg loss	       1.84	Avg trade(win & loss)	$   1325.56

Max consec. winners	       9	Max consec. losers	       6
Avg # bars in winners	      10	Avg # bars in losers	       7

Max intraday drawdown	$ -25175.00
Profit factor   	       2.27	Max # contracts held	       1
Account size required	$  25175.00	Return on account	    1659%