|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Hello Chris,
Thanks for your appreciation. Hope you can benefit from them.
In all the rush writing the mail, I forgot to type the % symbols,
in the context of the message you should read:
-that the major worldwide operating company's profits and/or
profit-growths forecasts for the year 1998(and thereafter) will be
lowered by 20 to 90%.
(Due to Asian influence on the world's and regional economies,
most hit Asian countries will get into a recession-phase;
min. 2 continious quarters of 0 or minus 0% national economical
growth).
Latest news: Aus$ has hit a 4 years low of US$0.65(minus 25%
in 1 year) and Can$ has hit it's 11year-low(versus US$).
Those currency's Central Banks try to stop further sliding with
interventions, but that did not help the Asian tigers. They ended up
raising intrest-day-rates to unbelievable levels of 150%.
(compared to 2-8% here in Europe and in the US).
I think Japan with 0.49% is the "dangerous" outsider, a Yen is just
about worthless. Thats why it's no wonder that 60% of the US-defecit
(covered by the T-bonds) is fonded by Japanes investors.
Just imagine this: (Last week Jap. Gov. has anounced the go-ahead)
-Japan has to borough 75 billion US$-worth of Yens(by emitting
goverments loans(T-bonds)) to support its economy
-then there will be a demand(=shortage) for Yens, wich will increase
its price(=value), and therefore the 'costs' of the price(=rates)
-this will make the Yen attractive to invest in
-so it's attractive for a Japanese investor to invest in his own
currency without currency markets-influences,
but now he has got a problem:
His money is tied up in US-TBonds
-What will he/she do?
1. Keep his/her US-TBonds, wich will(in Yens) depreciate day
by day because of the rise of the Yen?
2. Or will he/she(while the US$ in Yens is at a peak) go for the
profit and with the higher rates at home and no valuta-risks,
sell his US-TBonds?
I think no.2. This will start off the major downfall in the
TBonds-market and the US$, and with bonds beiing unattractive
its price(rates) will have to go up, wich will start off the stockmarket's
collapse.
If you are able, use the holiday-period to reassure any bull-markets
ideas and thoughts, otherwise, unless you are a long-term(min. 5yrs)
investor, stay away from stocks and bonds, and wait untill the market
shows its direction.See previous mails what T.A. and the indicators
(price,trend and pattern) are saying/have to say.
Bye for now,
Ton Maas.
-----Oorspronkelijk bericht-----
Van: Christian Baude <BAUDECB@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Aan: A.J. Maas <anthmaas@xxxxxx>
CC: metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Datum: maandag 22 december 1997 18:21
Onderwerp: Re: Black-Hole ratio
Just curious, what is "(-20/-90)" in:
>>major global companies (-20/-90) high tech, consu....
-= Chris ß =-
|