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[Carey Barnett] I'm with you.
I've also just finished my first year of trading at about break even. I, on the other hand, do quite well picking direction, but have a hard time with duration. That is to say, I pick the turn quite well, but fail to anticipate the length of the move well. As a result of this I end up taking a couple of hundred dollars out of a thousand dollar move, or waiting a day too long and getting stripped on the reverse of the next move.
My solution is the same: To simplify my approach. Actually I want to get to more trading and less analysis. Whenever I run a test on paper I do fine, but when I get around to applying it for real the market is behaving a different way (Please don't flame me about my behaving differently. I know how to model, and I've taken this into account.). On the up side I know quite a bit about many different techniques. On the down side I'm not really making any money.
At the moment I'm analyzing Bill Williams 'Trading Chaos.' I think he's got something there: It answers many of my questions, and I think that if you follow the planned approach put forth in the book you can't screw it up - other than getting the wave count wrong.
Gotta go...
Fire when ready, Griswald.
Carey
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