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Re: Deflation????



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On Sat, 2 Aug 1997 Greatelto@xxxxxxx wrote:
> Auto sales have been strong basically because of the rebate programs and
> leasing deals.  Have you noticed that Chrysler just expanded and increased
> its rebate offers.  And with the large number of cars coming off two year
> leases, this will impact new car sales for the non-lease buyer. In essence,
> why buy new!

Another reason for lower Auto sales has been a very large increase in 
demand for SUVs and trucks, forcing manufacturers into the rebate deals 
on cars. Re lease end sales, if you turn your leased vehicle in you are 
likely to require a replacement. How does the leased component fit into 
the auto sales figures? 

> Tech-centric purchase....that is wild speculation!  In particular if you are
> referring to computers, etc.  Did you see Gateway's announcement that they
> have an inventory buildup.  Have you noticed the severe price cutting going
> on in this industry.  Somebody earlier asked for opinions about Intel as an
> investment.  Look at the competition jumping up in their face lately.  Two
> companies have merged just for the purpose of taking on Intel.  And their
> chips are cheaper than Intel's and apparently almost as good.

Several factors at play here. I tend to concentrate on business trends in
use of technology, wild speculations aside :-) The top tier businesses
(CSCO, MSFT, INTC, etc.) are there for a reason. No MIS manager wants to
take a chance on "almost as good" technology. Although the 'almost as
good' argument might be leveled at MSFT, there is also a desire for
standardization. For this reason the competing chips will be in the lower
tier (home, SOHO) markets. As entry level PCs drop below the magic $1K
number as they have just recently, home users will be more likely to
allocate money for a new PC at the expense of other items. Inventory
management is another issue altogether; Gateway probably needs better
software for predicting inventory needs. Compaq sales are strong, IBM
sales are strong. 

How much of an effect would you suppose technology has had on productivity?
I think it is rather large. 

Thanks for your interesting comments.

Cheers,

Jim