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> There are loads and loads of market letter writters, signal, system
> and indicator sellers out there all of whom have the same goal and it
> isn't to educate the public.
How true!!!
I would not mind paying for a product that works ... I am just not convinced
that cycle analysis is worth much more that the standard indicators that are
in the public domain. Stoch-RSI and T3 filter put on AB board by Dimitris
Tsokakis are more advanced items freely available to us.
I am not looking for another research project.
The most useful thing I have found so far is to use 2 or maybe even 3 times
frames - at least for day trading. Increases the effectiveness of any system
significantly.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Fred" <ftonetti@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, March 27, 2007 10:13 PM
Subject: [amibroker] Re: FFT
> No one publishes the workings of the "Holy Grail" for all to see for
> a variety of reasons not the least of which is that it owouldn't take
> long before it stopped working ... Beyond that it's not really for
> sale in any form disclosed or otherwise either for the same
> reasons ...
>
> If you had a system that made 100% CAR on less then 5% DD's what
> would it be worth ? ... Billions ? Millions ? Certainly not
> thousands ... Even if you only had $10k to start with in ten years
> you'd have $10mm ...
>
> There are loads and loads of market letter writters, signal, system
> and indicator sellers out there all of whom have the same goal and it
> isn't to educate the public.
>
> Think about it ...
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Ara Kaloustian" <ara1@xxx> wrote:
>>
>> interesting thought, but I don't think doing FFT on weeky data will
> overcome the basic issues of FFT.
>>
>> Unfortunately, my experience with MESA (at least the version
> provided in Ehlers books) has not been useful either.
>>
>> In particular, I dont get good separation of trend and cycle modes.
> Seems cycle mode is valid after 2 complete "good looking" cycles are
> gone by. This is of course not very useful as the cycles do not
> continue forever.
>>
>> I beleive the propriatary version (which is different) is available
> from Trade Station and eSignal for 30 day free evaluation.
>>
>> There is only scetchy info in his books about the proprietary
> version.
>>
>> If anyone uses these platforms to trade with, you might try and see
> if they are useful.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: Rakesh Sahgal
>> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> Sent: Tuesday, March 27, 2007 8:03 PM
>> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: FFT
>>
>>
>> Exactly. The usefulness of the information extracted is a
> function of it's use-ability as an input for trading decisions. With
> dominant cycle lengths changing every few bars how can we implement
> trading positions based on this input? Anybody used this successfully
> to call swing pivots and willing to share their technique? Just loud
> thinking and maybe it is without a logical base - Is it possible to
> extract the cycle length based on the DFT algorithm Tomasz posted on
> a weekly timeframe and then apply it to the daily timeframe by
> multiplying with 5(trading days in a week). Will that to some extent
> take care of the concern about the constancy of cycle length?
>>
>>
>> R
>>
>>
>> On 3/28/07, wavemechanic <fimdot@xxx> wrote:
>> As I think you suggest, neither is the Holy Grail. FFT can
> certainly not compete in the resolution department with MESA without
> invalidating the requirement of constancy of amplitude and phase
> because of the need for large data lengths in order to achieve
> resolution. So, using short data lengths MESA shoots for high
> resolution of short-term cycles and knowingly accepts some
> statistical penalty. Even so its still not Shangri La because short-
> term cycles will most probably not be present over longer periods
> that are of interest to traders/investors. Ehlers cleverly takes
> care of this by dividing the world into trending and non-trending and
> arguing that short-term cycles will be a major player in non-trending
> markets but not in trending markets (very useful insight). He then
> throws in the towel and emphasizes trading in trending markets (short-
> term trading is too tough?).
>>
>> Bill
>>
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "Fred" <ftonetti@xxx >
>> To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx >
>> Sent: Tuesday, March 27, 2007 3:42 PM
>> Subject: [amibroker] Re: FFT
>>
>>
>> > Not to get into semantics ... But yes and this is because one
>> > usually uses MESA with shorter data samples where the shorter
> term
>> > cycles are not overwhelmed by the longer cycles which
> typically have
>> > larger amplitudes. While interesting for some things FFT's
> don't
>> > really have particularly good granularity as cycle length
> approaches
>> > half the size of the data being examined. MESA doesn't
> suffer from
>> > this.
>> >
>> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx , "wavemechanic" <fimdot@>
> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> Yes, that's right - handle is the wrong word and should be
> find,
>> > reveal, uncover, etc. This ability is of particular interest
> to
>> > short-term traders.
>> >>
>> >> Bill
>> >>
>> >> ----- Original Message -----
>> >> From: "Fred" <ftonetti@>
>> >> To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx >
>> >> Sent: Tuesday, March 27, 2007 2:04 PM
>> >> Subject: [amibroker] Re: FFT
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> > MESA doesn't really have the ability to handle shorter
> cycles
>> > per
>> >> > se ...
>> >> >
>> >> > What it does have is the ability to pull cyclical
> information
>> > out of
>> >> > shorter samples of data.
>> >> >
>> >> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx , "wavemechanic"
> <fimdot@> wrote:
>> >> >>
>> >> >> No, I'm not saying that MESA will give better results
> than
>> >> > a "better" FFT (is MESA a "better" FFT?). That judgment
> cannot
>> > be
>> >> > made until you leave the hypothetical and have a "better"
> FFT to
>> >> > talk about. Until then statistics help identify valid
> cycles
>> > and
>> >> > MESA offers some advantages, including noise filtering and
>> > ability
>> >> > to handle shorter cycles. Good luck in your search.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Bill
>> >> >>
>> >> >> ----- Original Message -----
>> >> >> From: Ton Sieverding
>> >> >> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> >> Sent: Tuesday, March 27, 2007 3:24 AM
>> >> >> Subject: Re: [amibroker] FFT
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >> So what you are saying is - 'Beyond that one can go to
> MESA' -
>> >
>> >> > that even after I should have found whatever modified
> version of
>> >> > FFT, MESA will give me better results. In other words, why
>> > playing
>> >> > with FFT if MESA is the right way to go. Is that your
> opinion or
>> > am
>> >> > I missing something ?
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Ton
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >> ----- Original Message -----
>> >> >> From: wavemechanic
>> >> >> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> >> Sent: Monday, March 26, 2007 2:42 PM
>> >> >> Subject: Re: [amibroker] FFT
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >> The restrictions associated with FFT that Ehlers
> mentions
>> > can
>> >> > be found in any textbook. As for better results with FFT,
> the
>> > next
>> >> > step is to evaluate the cycles statistically (e.g.,
> Bartels, F-
>> >> > ratio, chi-square, etc.). Beyond that one can go to MESA
> and
>> > such.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Bill
>> >> >> ----- Original Message -----
>> >> >> From: Ton Sieverding
>> >> >> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> >> Sent: Monday, March 26, 2007 2:58 AM
>> >> >> Subject: Re: [amibroker] FFT
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Frankly for me these are John Ehlers typical
> arguments to
>> >> > use his MESA model in stead of FFT and has nothing to do
> with a
>> >> > discussion. The question for me still remains if there
> really is
>> > no
>> >> > way to get better results with FFT than the ones we have
> got ?
>> > If
>> >> > Fourier analysis is correct and it's possible to simulate
>> > whatever
>> >> > continues timeseries with a bunch of sinewaves and if MESA
> can
>> > give
>> >> > me the correct harmonics, it should also be possible to
> obtain
>> > the
>> >> > same results with a modified version of FFT. Question is
> how ?
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Ton Sieverding.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> ----- Original Message -----
>> >> >> From: wavemechanic
>> >> >> To: AmiBroker, User
>> >> >> Sent: Monday, March 26, 2007 1:27 AM
>> >> >> Subject: Re: [amibroker] FFT
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >> There is a discussion of FFT use and problems on
> Ehlers
>> >> > MESA website:
>> >> >>
>> >> >> http://www.mesasoftware.com/fftcomparison.htm
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Bill
>> >> >>
>> >> >> ----- Original Message -----
>> >> >> From: Ara Kaloustian
>> >> >> To: AB-Main
>> >> >> Sent: Sunday, March 25, 2007 3:16 PM
>> >> >> Subject: [amibroker] FFT
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >> I was playing with AB's FFT code that TJ
> provided...
>> >> >>
>> >> >> The cycles seem to shift relative to the data,
> based
>> > on
>> >> > how many data points are analyzed. This is of course
> expected.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Question:
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Has anyone found a way to determine optimum
> number of
>> >> > data points to analyze, and then determine the relevance
> of the
>> >> > dominant cycle, or find any relevant cycles?
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Most of the time the dominant cycle seems to be
> the
>> >> > largest one available.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Has anyone been able to use these cycles
> succesfully?
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Ara
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >> ----------------------------------------------------------
> ------
>> > ---
>> >> > ---
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >> No virus found in this incoming message.
>> >> >> Checked by AVG Free Edition.
>> >> >> Version: 7.5.446 / Virus Database:
> 268.18.17/732 -
>> >> > Release Date: 3/24/2007 4:36 PM
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >> ----------------------------------------------------------
> ------
>> > ---
>> >> > -------
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >> No virus found in this incoming message.
>> >> >> Checked by AVG Free Edition.
>> >> >> Version: 7.5.446 / Virus Database: 268.18.18/733 -
>> > Release
>> >> > Date: 3/25/2007 11:07 AM
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >> ----------------------------------------------------------
> ------
>> > ---
>> >> > -----------
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >> No virus found in this incoming message.
>> >> >> Checked by AVG Free Edition.
>> >> >> Version: 7.5.446 / Virus Database: 268.18.18/734 -
> Release
>> > Date:
>> >> > 3/26/2007 2:31 PM
>> >> >>
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> > Please note that this group is for discussion between
> users only.
>> >> >
>> >> > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail
> directly to
>> >> > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
>> >> >
>> >> > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check
> DEVLOG:
>> >> > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
>> >> >
>> >> > For other support material please check also:
>> >> > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
>> >> >
>> >> > Yahoo! Groups Links
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> > --
>> >> > No virus found in this incoming message.
>> >> > Checked by AVG Free Edition.
>> >> > Version: 7.5.446 / Virus Database: 268.18.18/734 - Release
> Date:
>> > 3/26/2007 2:31 PM
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >>
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > Please note that this group is for discussion between users
> only.
>> >
>> > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly
> to
>> > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
>> >
>> > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check
> DEVLOG:
>> > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
>> >
>> > For other support material please check also:
>> > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
>> >
>> > Yahoo! Groups Links
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > --
>> > No virus found in this incoming message.
>> > Checked by AVG Free Edition.
>> > Version: 7.5.446 / Virus Database: 268.18.18/734 - Release
> Date: 3/26/2007 2:31 PM
>> >
>> >
>>
>
>
>
>
> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
>
> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
>
> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
>
> For other support material please check also:
> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
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For other support material please check also:
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