M Syed, I
appreciate your insights and sharing.
Here?s a
pattern for you. I first posted this speculation on Slope of Hope, markettimers@yahoogroups,
yelnick, spiritoftruth on September 25. I call it the Sirial Calendar
1929-1987 analogy. It predicts 4 dates in 2009 that MAY replicate the
same 4 dates that occurred in 1929 and 1987 that were the focus of Chris
Carolan?s book, The Spiral Calendar. The four dates are computed very
simply according to Chris ?Spiral? intervals published in his book (Fibonacci
based intervals counted in synodic periods of 29.5306 days).
http://www.screencast.com/users/Virginia_Jim/folders/Jing/media/e78ae4c6-8eb2-4977-b8d6-001fe77b25c8
The first of
4 dates was July 11, 2009 and was a perfect ?hit?. It was a significant
low. If you recall, on the date of that low, everyone?.everyone was
watching the infamous Head and Shoulders TOP. It was being shown on
CNBC. EWI was publishing it. It ordained that the market would re
test the March 2009 lows. But the July 11 date indicated that it was THE
low before the next date which would be a top?and that date is October 16,
2009, yesterday.
Keep in mind
any projection can never be more accurate than the projection interval.
So, July 11 was the projection +- one day. And, July 11 was a
Saturday. So, I?d have said that significant low could have occurred on
Friday July 10, Thursday July 9, Monday July 13 or Tuesday July 14 and the
model would have been credited with a successful prediction. Similarly,
I?d say three dates would satisfy the October 16 prediction; Thursday October
15, Friday October 16 or Monday October 19.
Well, October
15 had a new recovery high in the DOW and SPX. I?d say that satisfies
the model. There could be a remaining high according to the model on
Monday or it might not occur. The model remains valid either way; it
simply projected the final highest high on October 16 +- 1 day so it could
have a further high Monday. Now, if Tuesday October 17 has a further
recovery high, I?d say the model is bust. But for now, the model has
predicted TWO monument dates in 2009 that occurred in BOTH 1929 and
1987.
Pure
numerology. Nothing more. If I gave these four dates to you with
the implications in June 2009, what would be the probability you?d give a
numerological savant that they?d occur? One in infinity. When the
first date worked, what would the probability be? Well maybe a little
less worse, say one in Taleb?s 5000 lifetimes (of the universe). But now
we?ve tentatively got 2 out of 4 dates are a success. It?s got me
interested. A new high AFTER Monday trashes the whole thing, but until
then it?s a ?hmmmmm.? Here?s the implied analog in chart form aligned
for the lowest low in each of the 3 years:
http://www.screencast.com/users/Virginia_Jim/folders/Jing/media/07742629-a2d9-4b56-a3e5-83f0d23443c0
Interesting
stuff,
Jim
From: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:realtraders@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of
tpmods
Sent: Saturday, October 17, 2009 8:35 AM
To:
realtraders@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [RT] Failure of
studies/patterns
I am seeing bearish calls in our group since last 30 days or so,needless to
say all those bearish calls gone wrong predicting market trend and stopped
out,then next time they came up with other patterns and gave sell calls again
failed.
So we need to do self check now why we failed,this helps us in long
term and increase our chances for our future trades profitibility.
take
this in right spirit.
Bye and good luck.