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Hi, Robert
I will be interested to see if you feel that it is
a substantial improvement.
I definitely will look at it. However my
personal interest is how to verify the projection line. It is a different
approach than Technical Analysis. If you are interested to, here is the small
article about Back testing (it is written for my research group): http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Study/BT/
That is very interesting to
me. I always wondered why Wiley did the Russian translation. Do you
know if it was widely read there?
I cannot say. I live now in Canada though
still have friends and business relations there.
I know some Russian traders personally.
What can I say? Many traders in Russia have started trading when
Russian economy was in collapse. They came
from military supported science (like space, aviation, nuclear physics). So they
all are really well educated. Many were (and still are) interested in creating
the mechanical trading systems, trading robots, etc.
Last year I was in Moscow and attended the
traders/investors conference. The level of their training, knowledge and
thinking was suprisingly high.
IMHO your future books have a future in
Russia.
Best regards,
Sergey
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, November 09, 2007 9:35
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] The Dollar
Hi Sergey,
> Thank you, Robert<
My pleasure.
>I will be
the first one to buy it.<
Thanks for your kind
words. I will be interested to see if you feel that it is a substantial
improvement.
>BTW. My friend
translated your first book into Russian.<
That is very interesting to
me. I always wondered why Wiley did the Russian translation. Do
you know if it was widely read there?
Regards,
Bob
From: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:realtraders@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of
Sergey
Sent: Friday, November 09, 2007 6:10 AM
To:
realtraders@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [RT] The
Dollar
----- Original Message
-----
Sent: Thursday, November 08, 2007 6:40
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] The Dollar
Hello
Sergey,
Yes I am. Glad my book
has proven helpful.
A completely new
second edition will be available in 02-2008 titled The
Evaluation and Optimization of Trading Strategies.
Regards,
Bob Pardo
From: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:realtraders@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of
Sergey
Sent: Thursday, November 08, 2007 5:30 PM
To:
realtraders@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [RT] The
Dollar
Are you the same
Robert Pardo who has written the book "Design, testing and optimization of
trading systems"?
I am asking as my
group does a lot of backtesting of different models, and this book is our
handbook.
----- Original Message
-----
Sent: Thursday, November 08, 2007 5:37
PM
Subject:
RE: [RT] The Dollar
Hi Ben,
With all due respect, what
source of information can you site for this seemingly ?definitive? view
you have of the actions of the Chinese government.
I worked for Salomon
Brothers in the early ?80s under John Meriwether and had the opportunity
to develop some insight into what it really means to be ?plugged? in to
government policy makers. They were ?plugged in.? The Fed
would call Meriwether and Guttfriend (sp?) and sometimes Henry Kaufman
into their offices to get a read from them on how policy decisions would
?play? on Wall Street ? before they announced them, as I understand how
this all went down. And, as ?plugged in? as they were, they would
never profess to know Fed and government policy
definitively.
I can also tell you from
repeated, firsthand experience that just because an investment or
trading entity has a lot of resources does not necessarily mean that they
really know what they are doing. The degree of incompetence in many
? and I certainly do not mean all by any means -- large financial
institutions would probably shock most people.
So, how is it that you
know Chinese government policy? What are your
sources?
Regards,
Bob
Pardo
From: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:realtraders@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of
profitok@xxxxxxxxxxnet
Sent: Thursday, November 08,
2007 3:57 PM
To:
realtraders@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [RT] The
Dollar
The Chinese 15 years ago ,, learned by
mistake how to make money in currencies,
they decided then ,to have a monopoly on prices of
specialty ORES and minerals, and metals
(nickel, kadmiume,titeniume etc)
they bought a majority of mines in Canada
,Australia, and Africa
once a year they transfer their sales
(minus expenses) to the bank of china
realize, how the Canadian dollar is rising against
the us dollar
and same for the
Australian dollar
and in Singapore they make a market
for 6 currency options
they even sell calls on their us
bonds,
Ben
----- Original Message -----
From: Timothy
Morge
Date: Thursday, November 8, 2007 12:19 pm
Subject: Re:
[RT] The Dollar
To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
>
Ben:
>
> I agree they are not stupid. They were some of
the
> finest traders in the world long before we were
>
wearing anything but animal skins [we being Europeans
> that then
came to America].
>
> That being said, they are a little like
America in the
> expansion period of the 1920's. They are growing
SO
> fast and have so few people compared to what they need
>
to take advantage of all the wonderful profit
> potential sitting in
their laps, they currently do not
> have the time, energy or people
to do as surgical an
> allocation method as you described. They'd
like
> to--trust me, I am constantly being asked to move my
>
family because they want to build a very large new
> investment arm
that would deal with nothing but market
> timing, investment timing
and materials purchasing
> timing--but they are simply overwhelmed
meeting the
> daily demands of keeping up with how fast eveything
is
> growing and moving.
>
> That being said...They are
NOT invested in the U.S. in
> a large way. Those days are over.
They, along with the
> majority of pro U.S. Royals and several other
ex major
> U.S. asset holders have been diversifying for
some
> time. But the Chinese are not managing currency
>
exposures for profits on a daily or weekly basis. Not
> yet. But
they have lots of money. Lots.
>
> They're not stupid. They
were just resting,
> waiting...and I believe it's safe to say they
are
> awake now.
>
> Tim
> --- Ben wrote:
>
> > charles
> > they are FAR from being stupid
>
> their goals are 2 fold
> > a: keep the buying power of their
nation
> > b: make money
> > think of how much money
they make daily buying low
> > and selling hi
> > -----
Original Message -----
> > From: Charles Meyer
> > To:
realtraders@yahoogroups.com
> > Sent: Thursday,
November 08, 2007 8:19 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] The
Dollar
> >
> >
> > Frankly, I would be
shocked it their plan were
> > this
> >
simplistic.
> > You'd think they would be more sophisticated;
but
> > then
> > again
> > they may be naieve
about the inter-workings of
> > capitalism.
> > Don't
know really.
> >
> > chas
> > -----
>
>
> > On Wed, 7 Nov 2007 20:05:50 -0800 (PST)
> >
Timothy Morge wrote:
> > > Well, I would say that it's an
interesting
> > theory. But
> > > not what the
officials are doing with their
> > country's
> > >
reserves. It's just not so. I had a very nice
> > dinner
>
> > with the Minister of Finance in July--I have had
> >
the
> > > pleasure of working with him on a consulting
>
> basis for
> > > more than 20 years as he has risen in the
ranks.
> > >
> > > Thier mix is certainly not
conttrolled anywhere
> > near
> > > that closely and
if you are implying they have
> > 25
> > > percent of
their currency reserves or exposure
> > in the
> > >
Canadian dollar, I'm sorry. You're incorrect by
> > quite
>
> > a bit.
> > >
> > > I'm not trying to be
argumentative, Ben, but
> > there are
> > > too many
ill-founded rumorsm out there and this
> > mix
> > >
idea is just wrong. They are using a much
> > blunter mix
>
> > than this. You are making them out to be JP
> >
Morgan--it
> > > just ain't so.
> > >
>
> > Tim
> > > --- Ben wrote:
> > >
>
> >> Hello Ira
> > >>
> > >> this
is EXECtely what china goverment is doing
> > >>
>
> >> they have 25% in euro
> > >> 25% in
yen
> > >> 25% in usd
> > >> and 25% in
cd
> > >> every day they eqalize the amount
> >
>> if euro up they sell euro above 25% and buy the
> >
week
> > >> currency to make the 25%
> > >>
Ben
> > >> ----- Original Message -----
> >
>> From: Ira
> > >> To:
realtraders@yahoogroups.com
> > >> Sent:
Wednesday, November 07, 2007 3:16 PM
> > >> Subject: Re:
[RT] The Dollar
> > >>
> > >>
> >
>>
> > >> I have two targets below here. One at
74.50 and
> > a
> > >> long term target of 70.50.
There is a rumor
> > that
> > >> China is moving a
lot of its U.S. Dollar cash
> > >> reserves into Euros.
This does not look good
> > for
> > >> the dollar
if it is true. Who really knows what
> > the
> >
>> Chinese government will do. There is one other
> >
>> credit crises that hasn't been addressed out
> > side
of
> > >> the lenders and that is the insurance
>
> companies.
> > >> How many of them have put how much
of your
> > premiums
> > >> into mortgage backed
securities. Or just
> > mortgages
> > >>
themselves. This will also impact the Dollar.
> > >> There
is also a crises brewing with the NASCAR
> > Set.
> >
>> How high will the price of beer go with the
> > >>
increased cost of barley, hops and wheat?
> > Another
>
> >> drain on the Christmas dollar. Maybe a six pack
> >
>> gift will do.
> > >>
> > >>
Ira
> > >> www.delta100.com
> > >>
----- Original Message -----
> > >> From: Jim White
> > >> To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
>
> >> Sent: Wednesday, November 07, 2007 11:35 AM
> >
>> Subject: [RT] The Dollar
> > >>
> >
>>
> > >>
> > >> We may be near a
turn in the dollar decline.
> > >> This week is a Near
Impulse week for the dollar
> > and
> > >> Friday
is a Near Impulse day which could mark
> > the
> >
>> low.
> > >> Jim White
> > >> Pivot
Research & Trading Co.
> > >>
PivotTrader.com
> > >>
> > >>
>
> >>
> > >>
> > >>
> >
>>
> > >
> >
>
----------------------------------------------------------
>
> >>
> > >>
> > >> No virus found
in this incoming message.
> > >> Checked by AVG Free
Edition.
> > >> Version: 7.5.503 / Virus Database:
>
> 269.15.24/1115
> > >> - Release Date: 11/7/2007 9:21
AM
> > >>
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
-----------------------------------------------------------------
>
-------------
> >
> >
> > No virus found
in this incoming message.
> > Checked by AVG Free Edition.
> > Version: 7.5.503 / Virus Database: 269.15.25/1118
>
> - Release Date: 11/8/2007 9:29 AM
> >
>
>
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