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Re: [RT] mkt outlook



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I think it was my post to which you were referring. I offer a few comments:
  • Although you can slide and dice the reasons/motivations, people who want jobs and do not have them are unemployed. There are many menial jobs which are available, however forcing people to take jobs which are below their skill and/or education level is not the hallmark of a healthy jobs economy. A minimum wage job in today's economy will not pay the bills.
  • Unions have been in decline for several decades now and I see no reason to blame jobs export on unions. Jobs will be exported as long as the world's corporations are able to find a cheaper place to produce their goods. This sounded ok as long as we kept most of the world's professional, engineering, research, and marketing jobs. However those too are moving offshore as our major technology leaders transfer technology and invest heavily for new research and development centers in China and India. Also, the strong manufacturing countries are developing very strong educational and research infrastructures which are severely eroding our dominance. In my view, we appear headed in the direction of homogenizing the world's labor rates to the lowest wages. I feel most fortunate to be retired!
  • We have already seen the effects of business dumping healthcare on the public sector and it is not pretty. In fact, the emergency rooms of many hospitals are so full of the resulting fall-out that those who have private healthcare coverage do not receive optimal service. I hardly think that the solution is for business to escape responsibility by dumping more of the burden of healthcare on the public.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: BobsKC
Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2006 12:45 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook

I agree with everything you say below Ira. 

For the record, I am currently at 80% cash with one tech stock shorted and all longs are
in bio tech and metals.   In your other post, you make some very convincing arguments that
we are topping out and even though I am obviously a fundamental trader rather than a technical
trader, I recognize the danger of being long when so many traders will be selling into strength.

I do take issue with your jobs picture or at least part of it as taking out those who do not seek
and will not accept any job, only makes sense.  The manufacturing sector has moved a large
percentage of their factories over seas and will continue to do so as long as unions hold sway
over their operations.  When an employee feels he/she works for the union rather than their
employer, quality workmanship is going to be hard to come by.  I actually considered that the
strike by Northwest mechanics might signal an end to union power in America but that may now
take a little longer than expected and a greater loss of manufacturing jobs with it.   American
business can simply not afford to provide free health care and life long retirement to its workers
and be competitive in a world market place. 

When I married my wife in 1963, we saved for three years to buy a color television.  We saved
for a home down payment and we drove ten year old automobiles.  We had no boats or Skidoos
or snow mobiles or other luxury items and we owed no one except for our mortgage.  Today, our
young people *expect* to have all these things and have them immediately.  As you said, savings
is a foreign word to people and waiting for "toys" is unheard of.  Eventually, there will be a "price"
to be paid for such attitudes and I agree that we are getting closer and closer to the due date. 

Thanks to all who have expressed their opinions recently and let's all stay mobile and quick to
adjust to what the markets tell us.

Bob

At 07:26 AM 3/4/2006 -0800, you wrote:
It is not about being right or wrong, it is about making money.  You can change the trend any time you want to just by changing time frames.  You can have a down move within an up or an up move within a down move.   When someone states the top is in and doesn't give a time frame or a reference you have to consider the fact that it is the time frame that he is trading.  Then it is your responsibility to go over you charts with your system and see if it agrees with the information received. 
 
I have read Ben's posts for years and when I disagreed I would post my opinion, as that was all it  would be.  It would be based upon what I saw on my charts using the system that I use.  Ten different people can look at the same set of charts and come up with 10 different answers.  It appears from your post that you are a long term trader and are holding onto your long positions.  Someone else could have been trading the oscillations of the Dow, Russell or any other index and made a lot of money trading both the up and down moves in the market.  Ben has called tops and bottoms for years as have many others.  All their posts do is make me aware that there might be some value to their post or observations.  Then it is my responsibility to do my own homework.  The posts also bring my attention to items that I might not be trading, but could be a new profit center.  The NYA hit a new high and how many stocks hit new lows at the same time.  So to be blindly long or short in anything is an error.  To feel that the Market, which ever index you feel is the market, will carry a stock, option or future position can be disastrous.  If you are trading the indexes themselves, then that is fine, but it is not applicable to every trader.
 
If you have a question, ask it and I am sure that Ben or anyone else will be more then glad to answer.  If you disagree, that is fine.  Just give your reply as you did below.  It doesn't have to be sarcastic, or ridiculing.  A constructive reply can help everyone. 
 
To disagree is one thing to ridicule and deride is something entirely different. 
 
Just one mans' opinion.  Ira.


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