It is interesting that everyone
seems concerned as to whether the market is going up or down. Is it
the end of the bull and the start of the bear. Who really cares? Just
trade it. that is what traders do. What are the fundamentals?
We are about to enter the down side
of the 4 year cycle with lows in 94, 98, 02 and therefore we should see
one at the end of 06 or the start of 07 if the economic cycle continues
to hold true. As to no inflation. The average home price in my area
for January and February has been $1.1million. Of course the same
house in Texas probably runs about $350,000. Health care, insurance,
etc.are going up at a real inflationary rate. Everyone looks to the
governments figures for inflation not realizing that they change the
components at will. They say inflation is steady and yet the cost of
living keeps rising.
Remember, it is not what is actually
happening that makes the markets move. It is the perception of what
should happen that causes the price action. I don't think anyone has
the time to read all the reports. Research all the papers written or
read all of the opinions of various gurus and prognosticators and still
have time to trade. The answer is the same as in any simple crime
drama. Follow the money. That is basically what technical analysis
does.
I have nothing that says lower right
now, but I do have a major high target of over 15,000 with some major
resistance just below the previous high of 11,000+. Will it get to
15,000+ or will it stop at 11,360? I really don't care. If the chart
says buy that is what you should do and if the price says sell then do
that. Many times the charts tell you to get out and do nothing, but
very few people ever listen to that scenario.
Just one man's opinion. Ira.