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Hello Jan,
Not trying to stir up an argument here but I would
like to submit WRT MedianLines - medianlines(drawn
before the fact and not post facto) validated by
subsequent price action DO provide pretty good trades.
As I had indicated in the chart I posted, the MLs'
were drawn long before the subsequent price action. Is
it a forecasting tool? I dont think so, but then it is
for the experienced people to dwell on as it is
outside the scope of my competence. For me whatever
good trades have come from ML have been on the basis
of responding to price action AFTER it has been
stopped by the MLs'. They in essence are therefore
providing me an explanation of why price is behaving
the way it is and the justification to make a trade so
to speak.
Case in point yesterday's cash S&P(10/20). It peaked
almost at the medianline drawn from pivots dated -
9/22, 10/03 and 10/13.Right above this(1.5 odd points
above) was the ML drawn from pivots dataed 6/22,7/7
and 8/3.Chart minus the 10/20 price action attached.
So anyone who had the chart setup and had access to
intraday data and could correlate the EOD and
developing intra-day charts was prepared for a good
trade. The critics might say you draw enough lines you
will get a hit somehwere. Well we all must believe
what we must.Cant argue with that. Like you said right
in the begining - whatever one is good at, one must
make use of that.
Best Regards
Rakesh
--- jan4123@xxxxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
> As they say: use whatever works for you, however,
> the recent mkt forecasts which included some great
> an some not so great calls and the discussion which
> followed yesterday's mkt gave me something to think
> about.
>
> Having watched Median Line's pitchforks which often
> work, but often don't, especially if you draw
> without hindsight advantage, or Elliott or Hurst or
> Wolfe, all of them trying to forecast what the mkt
> will do, but require that you make the right
> assumptions or inputs or you start drawing from the
> right point, etc. - i saw a great advantage of
> having a good, proven system which you follow
> without trying to forecast. And that despite some
> past postings here which gave system trading bad
> rap.
>
> I normally trade EC, but yesterday being in
> Barcelona and having come home to late for it, I
> traded ES. The attached chart shows all system
> trades - I have additional rules which would
> eliminate the trade 11:47 -12:17. White arrows are
> exit signals, but I also exit on double tops/bottoms
> combined with yellow bars, yellow band is 60 period
> MovAvg band and green lines are Donchian Chnl lines.
> Other lines are also Donch Chnnl lines with higher
> inputs - 20, 40, 60. The system is based on mkt
> bouncing from chnnl lines or, countertrend, on
> double divergencies
> combined with very overbought/oversold condition.
>
> System Trades:
> 8:40-8:43 -125pts, 8:55-9:12 +200, 9:14-9:31 -100,
> 9:31-9:45 +375, 10:02-10:30 +275, 10:31-10:45 -150,
> 11:01-11:43 +325, 11:47-12:17 -300 (not taken),
> 12:17-12:27 -125, 12:32-13:02 +175, 13:01 - not
> taken, very strong mkt, 13:29-15:14 +1225 ( stayed
> in trade with lower Donchian Chnnl green line
> confining the mkt).
>
> This is not to bragg, but in defense of system
> trading.
>
> My webmail doesn't accept more than 1 attachment, so
> I'm sending the 2nd chart by separate mail.
>
> Jan Philipp
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Rakesh Sahgal <rakeshsahgal@xxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Oct 19, 2005 10:51 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] My impresson is that many had a
> bad day
>
> Hi,
>
> Was it really all that bad? There were clear
> indications for anyone who CARED to look CLOSELY
> that
> a low will be put in place for a move to 1200(move
> indicated by some VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE people here).
> Just look at the evidence:
>
> 1. In the chart attached you will see that price
> tanked on 10/18 courtesy of the black medianline.
> This
> median line has caused price to halt in it's track
> on
> 3 occasions i.e. 9/22,10/3 and finally on 10/13. The
> reliability of depending on this medianline was
> hence
> fairly high, subject to other safeguards that you
> may
> be using.This chart was first posted by me on 9/27
> with the very same medianline.Just imagine the
> accuracy of people who are proficient with the
> technique using intra-day data would have achieved.
> Personally for me MedianLines have been one of the
> most worthwhile things I have learned and I cannot
> thank Tim Morge enough for this.
>
> 2. Once the medianline in question had been paid due
> respect then the lower bollinger of shorter period
> bollinger drawn on the chart was pierced. This is
> the
> bit thats interesting and which I am not able to
> understand completely and hence unable to explain.
> When price pierces a lower bollinger band and a
> lower
> bollinger band of a longer length is below the
> shorter
> period lower bollinger, QUITE OFTEN this acts as a
> low
> being put in place.
>
> 3. Look at the relationship between the stochastics
> of
> different lengths(same as the bollingers used). This
> time around it was positive. Shorter period Stoch
> above those of longer periods. It was the reverse on
> 9/27.
>
> All of the above observations are based on EOD data.
>
> Leave alone all of what I have written above and
> just
> focus on the Bline method/system that Judy aka Buffy
> uses. That gave CLEAR indications on an EOD basis
> that
> things were turning, on an intra day basis one of
> the
> big days for sure.
>
> As to this being a prelude to a trend change, that
> is
> not indicated as yet by the chart. Most probably we
> will end up seeing the 1150 range as has been
> indicated on the forum(not by me)after a visit to
> the
> 1200-1205 range.
>
>
> Regards
>
>
> Rakesh
> --- Deosaran Bisnath <deobisnath@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> > Just a few observations, all of us have bad days,
> > and good days.
> > Am simply stating my take on the disillusioned
> mood
> > of a few traders
> > I know, and a few trading sites. Daytraders may
> have
> > escaped unscathed, I
> > barely made it into positive zone, mainly because
> I
> > was not a believer for most
> > of the day, even though the market was warning us
> in
> > no uncertain manner. But,
> > when NASDAQ futures relaunched above 1560, I was
> > convinced this was headed much
> > higher. Huge amounts of stops were hit, new
> shorts
> > entered, all the way up,
> > especially the rally from 1182 to close. Massive
> > daily candle, a KEY reversal
> > day, is it? Pre-Option Expiration Wednesdays are
> > usually wildly volatile, but
> > this one was about the most volatile for some
> time.
> >
> > As usual, it was the big guys who initiated this
> > move and they were the big
> > winners.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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