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what is a WRT median line?
Rakesh Sahgal wrote:
> Hello Jan,
>
> Not trying to stir up an argument here but I would
> like to submit WRT MedianLines - medianlines(drawn
> before the fact and not post facto) validated by
> subsequent price action DO provide pretty good trades.
>
> As I had indicated in the chart I posted, the MLs'
> were drawn long before the subsequent price action. Is
> it a forecasting tool? I dont think so, but then it is
> for the experienced people to dwell on as it is
> outside the scope of my competence. For me whatever
> good trades have come from ML have been on the basis
> of responding to price action AFTER it has been
> stopped by the MLs'. They in essence are therefore
> providing me an explanation of why price is behaving
> the way it is and the justification to make a trade so
> to speak.
>
> Case in point yesterday's cash S&P(10/20). It peaked
> almost at the medianline drawn from pivots dated -
> 9/22, 10/03 and 10/13.Right above this(1.5 odd points
> above) was the ML drawn from pivots dataed 6/22,7/7
> and 8/3.Chart minus the 10/20 price action attached.
> So anyone who had the chart setup and had access to
> intraday data and could correlate the EOD and
> developing intra-day charts was prepared for a good
> trade. The critics might say you draw enough lines you
> will get a hit somehwere. Well we all must believe
> what we must.Cant argue with that. Like you said right
> in the begining - whatever one is good at, one must
> make use of that.
>
> Best Regards
>
> Rakesh
>
> --- jan4123@xxxxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
>
> > As they say: use whatever works for you, however,
> > the recent mkt forecasts which included some great
> > an some not so great calls and the discussion which
> > followed yesterday's mkt gave me something to think
> > about.
> >
> > Having watched Median Line's pitchforks which often
> > work, but often don't, especially if you draw
> > without hindsight advantage, or Elliott or Hurst or
> > Wolfe, all of them trying to forecast what the mkt
> > will do, but require that you make the right
> > assumptions or inputs or you start drawing from the
> > right point, etc. - i saw a great advantage of
> > having a good, proven system which you follow
> > without trying to forecast. And that despite some
> > past postings here which gave system trading bad
> > rap.
> >
> > I normally trade EC, but yesterday being in
> > Barcelona and having come home to late for it, I
> > traded ES. The attached chart shows all system
> > trades - I have additional rules which would
> > eliminate the trade 11:47 -12:17. White arrows are
> > exit signals, but I also exit on double tops/bottoms
> > combined with yellow bars, yellow band is 60 period
> > MovAvg band and green lines are Donchian Chnl lines.
> > Other lines are also Donch Chnnl lines with higher
> > inputs - 20, 40, 60. The system is based on mkt
> > bouncing from chnnl lines or, countertrend, on
> > double divergencies
> > combined with very overbought/oversold condition.
> >
> > System Trades:
> > 8:40-8:43 -125pts, 8:55-9:12 +200, 9:14-9:31 -100,
> > 9:31-9:45 +375, 10:02-10:30 +275, 10:31-10:45 -150,
> > 11:01-11:43 +325, 11:47-12:17 -300 (not taken),
> > 12:17-12:27 -125, 12:32-13:02 +175, 13:01 - not
> > taken, very strong mkt, 13:29-15:14 +1225 ( stayed
> > in trade with lower Donchian Chnnl green line
> > confining the mkt).
> >
> > This is not to bragg, but in defense of system
> > trading.
> >
> > My webmail doesn't accept more than 1 attachment, so
> > I'm sending the 2nd chart by separate mail.
> >
> > Jan Philipp
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Rakesh Sahgal <rakeshsahgal@xxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Oct 19, 2005 10:51 PM
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: [RT] My impresson is that many had a
> > bad day
> >
> > Hi,
> >
> > Was it really all that bad? There were clear
> > indications for anyone who CARED to look CLOSELY
> > that
> > a low will be put in place for a move to 1200(move
> > indicated by some VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE people here).
> > Just look at the evidence:
> >
> > 1. In the chart attached you will see that price
> > tanked on 10/18 courtesy of the black medianline.
> > This
> > median line has caused price to halt in it's track
> > on
> > 3 occasions i.e. 9/22,10/3 and finally on 10/13. The
> > reliability of depending on this medianline was
> > hence
> > fairly high, subject to other safeguards that you
> > may
> > be using.This chart was first posted by me on 9/27
> > with the very same medianline.Just imagine the
> > accuracy of people who are proficient with the
> > technique using intra-day data would have achieved.
> > Personally for me MedianLines have been one of the
> > most worthwhile things I have learned and I cannot
> > thank Tim Morge enough for this.
> >
> > 2. Once the medianline in question had been paid due
> > respect then the lower bollinger of shorter period
> > bollinger drawn on the chart was pierced. This is
> > the
> > bit thats interesting and which I am not able to
> > understand completely and hence unable to explain.
> > When price pierces a lower bollinger band and a
> > lower
> > bollinger band of a longer length is below the
> > shorter
> > period lower bollinger, QUITE OFTEN this acts as a
> > low
> > being put in place.
> >
> > 3. Look at the relationship between the stochastics
> > of
> > different lengths(same as the bollingers used). This
> > time around it was positive. Shorter period Stoch
> > above those of longer periods. It was the reverse on
> > 9/27.
> >
> > All of the above observations are based on EOD data.
> >
> > Leave alone all of what I have written above and
> > just
> > focus on the Bline method/system that Judy aka Buffy
> > uses. That gave CLEAR indications on an EOD basis
> > that
> > things were turning, on an intra day basis one of
> > the
> > big days for sure.
> >
> > As to this being a prelude to a trend change, that
> > is
> > not indicated as yet by the chart. Most probably we
> > will end up seeing the 1150 range as has been
> > indicated on the forum(not by me)after a visit to
> > the
> > 1200-1205 range.
> >
> >
> > Regards
> >
> >
> > Rakesh
> > --- Deosaran Bisnath <deobisnath@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> >
> > > Just a few observations, all of us have bad days,
> > > and good days.
> > > Am simply stating my take on the disillusioned
> > mood
> > > of a few traders
> > > I know, and a few trading sites. Daytraders may
> > have
> > > escaped unscathed, I
> > > barely made it into positive zone, mainly because
> > I
> > > was not a believer for most
> > > of the day, even though the market was warning us
> > in
> > > no uncertain manner. But,
> > > when NASDAQ futures relaunched above 1560, I was
> > > convinced this was headed much
> > > higher. Huge amounts of stops were hit, new
> > shorts
> > > entered, all the way up,
> > > especially the rally from 1182 to close. Massive
> > > daily candle, a KEY reversal
> > > day, is it? Pre-Option Expiration Wednesdays are
> > > usually wildly volatile, but
> > > this one was about the most volatile for some
> > time.
> > >
> > > As usual, it was the big guys who initiated this
> > > move and they were the big
> > > winners.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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