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Tim,
It was never my intention to accuse you of fitting forks into trades or vice versa. It's just that pichforks, wave count, Wolve, etc. all of them prove well in hindsight, but are not so easy to set up ahead of time to get good results. This all boils down to the question: what is the accuracy of these methods which is hard to answer because they are as much science as art. Not many traders will get the same results using the same methodology of that sort.
I mentioned the Median Line because I visited your "conference room" ystd and watched your chart at the same time as I was trading my system (from ~12:30 to 13:10) so it was the first thing that came to mind. And I did say that pitchforks often work which obviously was the case of your recent trades.
As to my trades of ystd, I just showed what a system can do (not as evidence of my prowess) on a day which caused some confusion among some traders on the list.
Let's not be too sensitive and no bad feelings, please,
Jan Philipp
-----Original Message-----
From: Timothy Morge <timothymorge@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Oct 20, 2005 7:16 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cc: actionReactionLab@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] My impression is that many had a bad day
Jan:
I am going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you are not
accusing anyone of posting lines drawn "after the fact," especially since
you mentioned Median Lines after I posted here about my trade yesterday.
Let's be honest: If I was going to post an after the fact chart, I wouldn't
post a trade I ended up scratching after having six S&P handles in it--I'd
post a chart where I got long at the bottom and got out at the high.
I've attached the chart from today, with the exact same major lines that
were on the charts. Pay special attention to the down sloping green Median
Line. I believe even you can see that it not only gave you the tops of the
day seven trading days in a row, but it gave you the high from yesterday
and the low of today. And the line was drawn and posted, day after day
after day beginning in early October. It's been posted here several times,
the same line, and it's been posted on my public web site over and over
again, with updated price data only added. Not what I'd call hindsight
advantage...
I wouldn't stoop to pointing out that you showed us a string of "trade"
entry prices as evidence of your prowess, because I have no idea what you
do as a system trader or what your system is about or whether it works or
not, so I am in no position to judge it. And frankly, I don't throw stones
at people. I post my thoughts and my work. Some people may get some
benefits from it, some may not. But I'd prefer not to be slandered, here or
anywhere else I share my work freely.
Tim Morge
At 01:57 PM 10/20/2005, jan4123@xxxxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
>As they say: use whatever works for you, however, the recent mkt forecasts
>which included some great an some not so great calls and the discussion
>which followed yesterday's mkt gave me something to think about.
>
>Having watched Median Line's pitchforks which often work, but often don't,
>especially if you draw without hindsight advantage, or Elliott or Hurst or
>Wolfe, all of them trying to forecast what the mkt will do, but require
>that you make the right assumptions or inputs or you start drawing from
>the right point, etc. - i saw a great advantage of having a good, proven
>system which you follow without trying to forecast. And that despite some
>past postings here which gave system trading bad rap.
>
>I normally trade EC, but yesterday being in Barcelona and having come home
>to late for it, I traded ES. The attached chart shows all system trades -
>I have additional rules which would eliminate the trade 11:47 -12:17.
>White arrows are exit signals, but I also exit on double tops/bottoms
>combined with yellow bars, yellow band is 60 period MovAvg band and green
>lines are Donchian Chnl lines. Other lines are also Donch Chnnl lines with
>higher inputs - 20, 40, 60. The system is based on mkt bouncing from chnnl
>lines or, countertrend, on double divergencies
>combined with very overbought/oversold condition.
>
>System Trades:
>8:40-8:43 -125pts, 8:55-9:12 +200, 9:14-9:31 -100, 9:31-9:45 +375,
>10:02-10:30 +275, 10:31-10:45 -150, 11:01-11:43 +325, 11:47-12:17 -300
>(not taken), 12:17-12:27 -125, 12:32-13:02 +175, 13:01 - not taken, very
>strong mkt, 13:29-15:14 +1225 ( stayed in trade with lower Donchian Chnnl
>green line confining the mkt).
>
>This is not to bragg, but in defense of system trading.
>
>My webmail doesn't accept more than 1 attachment, so I'm sending the 2nd
>chart by separate mail.
>
>Jan Philipp
>
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>-----Original Message-----
>From: Rakesh Sahgal <rakeshsahgal@xxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Oct 19, 2005 10:51 PM
>To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Subject: Re: [RT] My impresson is that many had a bad day
>
>Hi,
>
>Was it really all that bad? There were clear
>indications for anyone who CARED to look CLOSELY that
>a low will be put in place for a move to 1200(move
>indicated by some VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE people here).
>Just look at the evidence:
>
>1. In the chart attached you will see that price
>tanked on 10/18 courtesy of the black medianline. This
>median line has caused price to halt in it's track on
>3 occasions i.e. 9/22,10/3 and finally on 10/13. The
>reliability of depending on this medianline was hence
>fairly high, subject to other safeguards that you may
>be using.This chart was first posted by me on 9/27
>with the very same medianline.Just imagine the
>accuracy of people who are proficient with the
>technique using intra-day data would have achieved.
>Personally for me MedianLines have been one of the
>most worthwhile things I have learned and I cannot
>thank Tim Morge enough for this.
>
>2. Once the medianline in question had been paid due
>respect then the lower bollinger of shorter period
>bollinger drawn on the chart was pierced. This is the
>bit thats interesting and which I am not able to
>understand completely and hence unable to explain.
>When price pierces a lower bollinger band and a lower
>bollinger band of a longer length is below the shorter
>period lower bollinger, QUITE OFTEN this acts as a low
>being put in place.
>
>3. Look at the relationship between the stochastics of
>different lengths(same as the bollingers used). This
>time around it was positive. Shorter period Stoch
>above those of longer periods. It was the reverse on
>9/27.
>
>All of the above observations are based on EOD data.
>Leave alone all of what I have written above and just
>focus on the Bline method/system that Judy aka Buffy
>uses. That gave CLEAR indications on an EOD basis that
>things were turning, on an intra day basis one of the
>big days for sure.
>
>As to this being a prelude to a trend change, that is
>not indicated as yet by the chart. Most probably we
>will end up seeing the 1150 range as has been
>indicated on the forum(not by me)after a visit to the
>1200-1205 range.
>
>
>Regards
>
>
>Rakesh
>--- Deosaran Bisnath <deobisnath@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> > Just a few observations, all of us have bad days,
> > and good days.
> > Am simply stating my take on the disillusioned mood
> > of a few traders
> > I know, and a few trading sites. Daytraders may have
> > escaped unscathed, I
> > barely made it into positive zone, mainly because I
> > was not a believer for most
> > of the day, even though the market was warning us in
> > no uncertain manner. But,
> > when NASDAQ futures relaunched above 1560, I was
> > convinced this was headed much
> > higher. Huge amounts of stops were hit, new shorts
> > entered, all the way up,
> > especially the rally from 1182 to close. Massive
> > daily candle, a KEY reversal
> > day, is it? Pre-Option Expiration Wednesdays are
> > usually wildly volatile, but
> > this one was about the most volatile for some time.
> >
> > As usual, it was the big guys who initiated this
> > move and they were the big
> > winners.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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