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Re: [RT] Market today



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I have temporary support here at the 1216 area.  I have targets in the 1200 area which should produce  some support or a bounce, a retracement.  This is for the SPZ5
 
Be interesting to see what happens. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
From: EAdamy
Sent: Tuesday, October 04, 2005 2:08 PM
Subject: [RT] Market today

My light short turned into a full short at 1234 and my full short would have turned into a fuller short at 1244 but I doubt we'll see that now. When my breadth models are updated tonight I expect they will have rolled over again. I see first significant support around SPX 1187+-, however I don't expect it will hold for long.
 
As mentioned earlier, the technicals have been topping for a good while. I don't generally put a lot of stock in the fundamentals, however every now and then I am willing to load the boat on fundamentals when the technicals are in obvious conflict. This time I have given fundamentals a lot of weight in deciding to scale up shorts against a market rising on the "good news" that Katrina and Rita did not wipe half the country off the face of the earth.
 
Essentially, I would characterize the forthcoming Christmas as cold and hungry. Energy is now taking a big bite out of consumers and it's going to get much worse as the heating bills start to roll in. While heating oil may back off a bit, natural gas is going to remain high for months to come. And of course, natural gas is used to generate nearly half of our electricity so electric bills are going up. Then there are the obviously rising costs of almost everything which requires energy to make or transport. Even the farmer is seeing the cost of his fertilizer rise out of sight.
 
Then there are the rising interest rates, especially at the short end of the curve used for consumer finance and ARMs. Finally, there is the Big Grinch ... minimum credit card payments are doubling (thanks to new bankruptcy law) from 1/40 of balance to 1/20 of balance for those who ride around on a fist full of credit cards on which they make minimum payments.
 
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: EAdamy
Sent: Thursday, September 29, 2005 6:17 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Nyse Daily

NYSE    7700 on Sep 30
NDX    1629 on Sep 30
SPX     1264 on Sep 30
 
From appearance of price relative to MOB I would rate all of these as very low probability. Attached is GIF of my NYSE breadth models which do not show the bullish divergences I want to see to support a strong rally.
 
In my playbook, I have been shorting ES since July 28 ... putting limit orders to sell in at 127% and 162% retracements of declines (rally targets) and taking profits on declines. Topping process can go on for months so I have not wanted to hold shorts on long term basis. I am now starting to work on a longer term short position and am currently lightly short ES mini and watching for opportunities to add to position on rally -or- break of support.
 
Earl


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