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Well this is interesting the very next day AGET changed the wave 3 to a wave 5 and started a new 1-2-3 count down (chart 1). So exiting the wave 3 shown in the previous gif was exactly the right thing to do?? Not bad for tea leaves I guess Ralph you would have to admit? But there is more . . . . don ewers ----- Original Message ----- From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> Sent: Monday, November 26, 2001 12:15 PM Subject: Re: [RT] elliot-wave chart for csco > Here it is Ralph, > > Off the top AGET had it in a wave 3 and since you do not hold through a wave > 4, you exit on a 6/4 ma sell signal which was given. I did not have a hard > stop in but when I saw the chart I exited immediately. So at this point > AGET said take your profits on the wave 3 and wait to see if a wave 5 long > setup materializes. Not a bad call it would seem. > > I will walk it out on the next chart to see what develops regarding any wave > 5? > don ewers > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > Sent: Monday, November 26, 2001 11:52 AM > Subject: Re: [RT] elliot-wave chart for csco > > > > Hi Ralph, > > All I can say is it has been a good tool for me to use and since I am not > > selling anything here (and have no connection with them), I have nothing > to > > gain by posting AGET things to the list. My posts normally discuss the > > current pattern/counts and offer upwhat they are saying. If they don't > mean > > anything to you or you don't understand the value, then simply hit the > > delete key? > > > > If one has not spent the time to learn AGET, learned to understand all of > > the "tricks" of the program, adjust ones thinking to the possible changes > in > > patterns as they unfold, then yes it could be considered tea leaves, as > > anything else could, nothing is 100% , there is no holy grail. Attending > "a > > few seminars" is hardly the time needed to understand the program, one > needs > > to use it for some time first. My experience has been over 6 years, it it > > would seem unlikely that I would be using something for that period of > time > > if it did not provide predictive value that I have profited from? > > > > My point is, AGET if used properly normally gets one on the "right side of > > the trade" more often than not, after that your trading skills and > > discipline need to take over. Will a person be stopped if it is wrong and > a > > count changes dramatically, yes, but that change of count I find keeps me > > well away from the "I hope syndrone", since in reality it tells me it was > > wrong and here is what now looks right. Some people cannot accept the > fact > > things change. Initially I was one until a guy at AGET (Andy Bushak) > > pointed out to me (more than once) that there are some count changes that > > don't make any difference you are still on the right side of the trade. > You > > just adjust profit and stop targets on them. It is the dramatic ones that > > do make the diffence and need to be heeded. > > > > As far as the oscillators I beg to disagree, they are one of the most > > valuable tools in my work as to which counts to use (normal, short or long > > term) and the foundation of the program, so your familiarity with AGET is > > showing there perhaps? > > > > That said, AGET does have the ability to go back in time and show exactly > > what it showed on any given date so I will look at what it showed as you > > have asked and post the chart on CSCO. I know I sold CSCO in my kids > > accounts at 60 3/4 depite them telling me they wanted to stay in it at the > > time and that they was in it for the long haul. AGET told me it was > likely > > all over at the time or nearing an end. It did go higher afterwards I > would > > have to admit. I will post a chart to see what it said, truth be known as > > it were. > > > > What was the other stock your friend asked about and the date roughly the > > question was asked, I will see if I have the data on it also. > > don ewers > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Ralph Volpe" <rjv@xxxxxxxxxx> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > > Sent: Monday, November 26, 2001 11:03 AM > > Subject: Re: [RT] elliot-wave chart for csco > > > > > > > Don, I looked at the AGET chart for csco and that mumbo jumbo of Elliot > > counts, as so > > > marked, has no meaning. I'm sorry to be negative, but all it looks like > to > > me is an > > > afterthought to make sense out of random pattern -- no different than > > trying to read > > > tea leaves. Also, the OSC at the bottom also seems to offer no > predictable > > outcome. I > > > would like to ascertain from AGET users is whether the system has merit. > > In other > > > words, did AGET give any indication of the initial csco drop in early > 2000 > > or when it > > > really started to tank in late 2000; and, did it get close to predicting > > the ensuing > > > carnage? The csco chart that you had attached also showed some slash > lines > > in blue, > > > green and red that are predicting the next possible outcome. If you were > > to look back > > > at previous drawings of those lines, how often has AGET been correct in > > drawing those > > > lines? > > > > > > I went to a few AGET seminars and in the last one I brought a friend who > > wasn't too > > > diplomatic and kept pressing a representative to predict what might > happen > > to a stock > > > she owned. If you ever wanted to see a sales rep. squirm, you should > have > > been there. > > > However, AGET was showing a modest gain for the stock we were examining, > > but the stock > > > now in the sewer. So, if you can give your input on the performance of > > AGET, I would > > > appreciate it -- but be careful, there are libel laws ;-). > > > > > > Ralph Volpe > > > > > > Don Ewers wrote: > > > > > > > Lenny, > > > > I agree with your weekly count. > > > > > > > > Using AGET weekly charts, after "parobolic" moves, will almost always > > > > initially label the correction downward wave 3 due to the depth of the > > 5/35 > > > > oscillator (likely on the way up also if the 5/35 never reaches zero). > > It > > > > makes sense to look at them using the 5/17 oscillator that shows the > > > > internal count of these severe pullbacks, so thanks for the > suggestion. > > > > > > > > If one goes to the current daily chart this gives a 1-2-3 count up off > > the > > > > bottom so "TV" a wave 4 pullback is likely at some point here (this > > whole > > > > sequence may be relabeled a 1-2 eventually if the stock continues to > > move > > > > higher thereafter)? If one looks back to April-June another 1-2-3-4 > > count > > > > up occurred off the low, but since there was no "credible" minor wave > 4" > > at > > > > that point, that rally was assumed to be just that, and that lower > minor > > > > wave 5 lows would follow, (which in fact has now occured) which > stresses > > why > > > > I like to look for the "good" minor wave 4 before assuming a 5 wave > > sequence > > > > is complete (the first one is frequently a fake out and only a minor > > wave 4 > > > > of wave 5)? I think this is the part that can frustrate early users > of > > the > > > > software until they "read between the lines at times" (ie the imfamous > > count > > > > change). > > > > > > > > Lenny, I have showed both of the retracements (normal fib from wave 2 > > and > > > > from wave 1) you mentioned. I have found just the wave 3 retracement > > quite > > > > accurate though and only use the full wave 1- wave 3 retracements if > the > > > > wave 4 red channel is exceeded, since wave 4 should be correcting only > > wave > > > > 3 only (wave 1 was corrected by wave 2). I see some confluence, so > lets > > see > > > > how it works out (assuming CSCO recent high starts a correction here). > > > > don ewers > > > > > > > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx > > > > > > > > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/ > > > > > > > > > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx > > > > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/ > > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx > > > > Your use of Yahoo! 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