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There was too much stuff at the 9/21 low to sweep it under the rug.
Here's something I posted that weekend elsewhere:
From: bruce.larson@xxxx
Date: Sat Sep 22, 2001 3:39 am
Subject: Re: SEPT 21,2001
I don't know about that astro harmonic but there are alot of fibo
numbers at todays lows:
1553 SPX Alltime high - 610 = 943
1316 SPX 5/22/01 high - 377 = 939
1081 SPX 3/22/01 low - 144 = 937
Today is 50 days down from 8/2/01 just as 1/31/01-3/22/01 was 50 days
down for the SPX.
Sunday is 124 days down from 5/22 just as 9/1/00-1/3/01 was 124 days
down for the NDX.
9/1/00-3/22/01 was 202 days down. 202x.618=124.
Just draw a support line from 4/14/00 - 3/22/01 and it appears to go
through 944 today for the SPX.
Keep thinking about that Venus Virgo last night opposing the Venus
Pisces which was within 5 minutes of the 1/3/01 low.
Finally for the Dow 1/14/00H + 236 = 9/6/00H; 1/14/00H +
(236x1.618=382) = 1/30/01; 1/14/00H + (236x1.618^2=618) = 9/23/01
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> Just a note, on my weekly charts (SP cash, DJI, Nasdaq cash) it
does not
> look all that bad and fits quite nicely with what was already
unfolding.
>
> In fact the target level could have been easily lower in a grinding
market
> like we were in. The momentum bottom which most have gotten used to
> playing, may have actually supported "earlier" buying than what
would have
> normally resulted. Anyway fits on most of my stuff FWIW and does
not look
> all that unusual for where we were EW pattern-wise, maybe just a
little
> quicker thats all on some (mid September vs October).
>
> What I do see is different downward counts for each which is a
reflection on
> the severity of the bubble each was in and the flight to big cap
safety (if
> you can call it that).
> don ewers
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ray Raffurty" <r.raffurty@xxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2001 10:13 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] 9-11 didn't exist
>
>
> > From a short tern point of view you can not discount such fears,
in fact
> you
> > should trade them in a contrary manor. I remember a few years
ago, I was
> > short a lot of index options and in a losing position, just about
to be
> > stopped out, when some idiot fired shots in the US Capitol
building. For
> a
> > few hours the market tanked, allowing me to get out with a
profit. Had I
> > increased my short I would have been wiped out. When the market
settled
> the
> > short position continued to go bad but the charts where skewed
for some
> time
> > to follow.
> >
> > But that should not influence a long term view. My contention is
that
> from
> > a longer term point of view 9-11 should be discounted much as one
would
> > discount a bad tick that has skewed their charts.
> >
> > Good luck and good trading,
> >
> > Ray Raffurty
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Daniel Goncharoff
> > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2001 10:37 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] 9-11 didn't exist
> >
> >
> > Ray
> >
> > The market sank yesterday because a plane crashed. There was fear
that
> > it was another terrorist attack. Doesn't this disprove the notion
that
> > 9/11 can be ignored?
> >
> > Regards
> > DanG
> >
> > > Ray Raffurty wrote:
> > >
> > > 9-11 DIDN"T EXIST!!! It was a giant consperancy perpertrated
by the
> > > airline industre to receive huge government bail outs. In fact
the
> > > films everyone thinks they saw where created in a Hollywood
computer
> > > animation lab (the same as the films of the moon landings
where).
> > >
> > >
> > > OK, now that I've got your attention, what I mean to say is
that from
> > > a charting / technical analysis point of view perhaps all data
between
> > > 9/11/01 and today 11/13/01 should be deleted.
> > >
> > > I hope everyone had the courage and means to go long (almost
> > > anything) shortly after the market reopened following the
tragedy of
> > > 9-11, but where do we go from here now that many stocks and the
market
> > > in general is back to pre 9-11 levels? I believe most standard
> > > indicators whether price based or volume base are drastically
skewed
> > > due to 9-11 and the market's recovery. This is most apparent
on daily
> > > charts of 6 month duration or less (see pic 1)
> > >
> > > One way to accomplish this would be to back up the time frame,
say to
> > > 1 year or longer (pic 2). The problem here is that this may not
> > > represent everyone's style of trading.
> > >
> > > My hypothesis is that all data between 9/11/01 and 11/13/01(and
> > > perhaps even longer as events unfold) should be deleted.
> > > Unfortunately I do not have the means to do this at this time.
> > > However I think it might be an interesting line of research for
> > > a magazine article or even a thesis. In fact one might extend
the
> > > idea to other similar events and develop a trading strategies
as the
> > > result.
> > >
> > > If nothing else it would make interesting conversation at your
next
> > > cocktail party.
> > >
> > > Good luck and good trading,
> > >
> > > Ray Raffurty
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> > > Name: pic1.gif
> > > pic1.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> > > Encoding: base64
> > >
> > > Name: pic2.gif
> > > pic2.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> > > Encoding: base64
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