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"I, for one, don't personally know anyone who is out of a job"
Consider yourself lucky. I know way too many. With all the defense
spending going on, So. CA might not get hot too bad. But IMO, the SF
Bay area is the harbinger for much of the rest of the country in this
regard. We even have a web site for out of work people to get
together and do other activities <g> (http://www.recessioncamp.com).
I'm a few miles from SF Airport where United Airlines has a major
hub. They have laid off a good number of people here. I hear that
In-n-Out burgers has lowered their starting hourly rate from $10/hr
to $8 because their are so many candidates. Hotels are mostly less
than 50% full and are laying off or cutting back the hours of
workers. Restaurants are cutting staff because people are not eating
out as much or spending as much when they do. There are rental
vacancy signs all over my neighborhood as people without jobs have
either moved in with someone else or left the area. Recruiters are
going out of business left and right, saying businesses are not
hiring. People are hurting.
As to the unemployment numbers and 5.4% being lower than what was
previously accepted - that was a different time. We've built our
current economy around low unemployment. People expecting to always
be able to find work went out on a limb to buy expensive houses, cars
and take 2 vacations a year. That drove the economy forward across
all industries. But up here, it generally takes two working people
to even begin to afford a mortgage. What happens when at least one
of those people loses their job? Bad news cascades and not only do
people not by houses and cars, but they cut back on other spending as
well. Predictions I have seen are for unemployment to hit 6% when it
the numbers are next reported.
Here's a good economic link with a lot of info on unemployment that I
recently came across:
http://www.epinet.org/
--- In realtraders@xxxx, bruce.larson@xxxx wrote:
> I've been reading about massive corporate lay-offs esp associated
> with banking mergers for the past 5 years. Seemed everyone just
got
> a big fat severance package and turned around and got another job
for
> more money. Otherwise they got rehired as consultants for better
> pay. I suppose the payrolls and claims data are confirming the
> negative news reports for the past several months. But on the
other
> hand, a 5.4% unemployment rate is far below the previous 6%
standard
> of NAIRU(non-accelerating inflationary rate of unemployemnt)
commonly
> accepted in the early 90s. I, for one, don't personally know
anyone
> who is out of a job. Aside from some furniture chain store
closures,
> I really don't see much evidence of a slowdown out here in southern
> California...yet.
>
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxx> wrote:
> > Me,
> >
> > I am forecasting a better than expected holiday shopping
> > season. The US economiy bottomed last week. You will hear about
> > it in February.
> >
> > Cheers,
> >
> > Norman
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Me Tarzan" <ibe98765@xxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > Sent: Saturday, November 10, 2001 1:50 AM
> > Subject: [RT] Layoff's continue to increase
> >
> >
> > > Each layoff likely removes one more shopper for the Xmas
season...
> > >
> > > http://www.msnbc.com/news/555872.asp?cp1=1
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
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