|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
Delta,
Thanks, That is pretty clear. In the past
my naivete or dumb trust, in such a forecast
would always screw me up. It is
really hard for me to reconcile when a supposed
CIT "might" happen and then it
doesn't. I appreciate your explaination on how you
work with this kind of uncertainty, it is
difficult to do without explicit guidelines.
Don
Subject: Re: [RT] Delta SP Chart
5-25
In a message dated
5/30/01 12:11:06 AM Eastern Daylight Time, <A
href="mailto:detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx";>detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx writes:
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"
TYPE="CITE">Delta,<FONT color=#000000 face=Arial lang=0 size=3
FAMILY="SANSSERIF"> <FONT color=#000000 face=Arial lang=0 size=2
FAMILY="SANSSERIF">Good Evening, Thanks for the post. On the
image you sent I think point 4 and 6 perhaps had a minor inflection but
the
<FONT color=#000000 face=Arial lang=0 size=2
FAMILY="SANSSERIF">picture showed where you just drew a line down to the
next pivot.<FONT color=#000000 face=Arial lang=0 size=3
FAMILY="SANSSERIF"> <FONT color=#000000 face=Arial lang=0 size=3
FAMILY="SANSSERIF">>>><FONT color=#000000
face=Arial lang=0 size=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF">Commenting on the rotation
sequence would be a violation of my agreement....sorry.<FONT
color=#000000 face=Arial lang=0 size=3 FAMILY="SANSSERIF"> <FONT
color=#000000 face=Arial lang=0 size=3 FAMILY="SANSSERIF"><FONT
color=#000000 face=Arial lang=0 size=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF">
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"
TYPE="CITE">How do you deal with an expectation of such a turn point when it
doesn't happen<FONT color=#000000 face=Arial lang=0 size=3
FAMILY="SANSSERIF"><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial
lang=0 size=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF">>>>I generally wait for it to
happen. I look for divergences and use moving averages. I look for a
couple down bars from my speculated top...(when trading the intermediate
term cycle) or jump on board using a confluence of smaller time frames 5,
10, 30 and 60 minutes with tight stops. Since the average half cycle width
(from top to bottom or bottom to top) is about 10 days on the intermediate
term with most markets, I use the 5,3,3 stochastic. I look for the sharp
peaks...the rounded one's fail more than not. Or more accurately, the
rounded tops portend a continuation of the trend as opposed to a tradable
reversal. When something fails, it speaks volumes if you're listening.
Divergences are very useful also, but many times they show up days or
longer before the actual turning point occurs. So I keep a close eye on
them, but rely on price action and moving averages which are the truest
indicators. Coupled of course with fore knowledge of the potential width
of the cycle. So as with many systems....it's a number of indicators one
needs to look at and digest at the same time. But the aspect of delta that
i personally like, is the window into tomorrow or the next day it
provides. A true leading indicator in that respect in my opinion. I know
approximately when to expect something to happen and it what direction.
Just my personal preference and where my experience lies. and how
do you trade or not trade >>>>Again, it'a all of the
above.
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"
TYPE="CITE"><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial lang=0 size=2
FAMILY="SANSSERIF">in those situations.. Is it a matter of looking at the
intraday process? <FONT color=#000000 face=Arial lang=0 size=3
FAMILY="SANSSERIF"> <FONT color=#000000 face=Arial
lang=0 size=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF">>>>>Many times yes. As stated
above, i look at numerous intra day cycles. I'm not going to go short when
the 60 minute is bottoming on a stochastic. Many trades I can enter close
enough to a top or bottom. If I'm worng, my stop is based off those
smaller cycles so my loss is but a couple bars. I then wait for actual
confirmation...a couple bars off the top of bottom and a confluence of
smaller cycles moving in my direction. Wait for the cycles to align
themselves in your direction. Look at any SP 10 min. bar chart.
There is inherently, prefaced with many times, a very stable 2 hour cycle
from peak to peak. This cycle can be very stable for a number of complete
cycles. Then it loses it's geometry for a bit, then realigns itself again.
When that cycle is stable, it can and has made for some very profitable
trades. Because it gets foggy every now and then, that doesn't invalidate
it for me, it's the nature of the beast. That's how cycles work. Delta
shows that repeatedly on all times frames. At the beginning of a new
cycle, regardless of time frame, things can go crazy. Volatility
increases. But there is some order within that chaos. To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYour
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
|