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I don't have a copy of my previous post but I'll believe what you have said.
On Friday, things did appear like they could move up again. I don't know if I
said it, but it apopeared like we were having a very weak "reaction" (as
opposed to a clear "move") to the pending medium term cycle low. My
stochastic indicator was at 19 I believe.
Even though we had a nice drop today, we still have a reaction so far as
opposed to a move. Quite frankly, I was fearful that prices could bounce off
the median line I drew due to the depth of the stochastic and somewhat
continued strength other indicators showed at that time.
I was more cautious sending the previous post due to the "non reaction" to
the pending medium term cycle low, but I'm not here to convert anyone to
Delta nor show how good or bad it is. I send these posts for those curious
about Delta, to throw some cycle work onto the list and to participate with
the methodology that I use. My interpretations of what is going on "delta
wise" at times could be wrong also.
At the beginning of a new cycle however, regardless of time frame (short,
intermediate, medium, long etc), a number of scenarios can present
themselves. That is what is going on here. The "rotation" (sequence of highs
and lows) is not yet definitively established, so I'm just taking it one day
at a time and reporting if you will on my analysis of things as I see them.
One thing that is definate, is a reaction or move down to the pending medium
term low and that is how I positioned myself. That is the next larger and
dominant cycle plus it's rotation has been established.
Quit frankly, not that one should expect anything, but generally speaking,
the larger the time frame that exists between cycle points, the larger the
move. Since we have 3 medium term points in very close proximity, about a
month and a half, I personally would expect just a reaction to the pending
medium term low then a stronger move back up to the next medium term high due
in mid June. But that is spculation based on past experience. Reality of the
market at this time will make itself clear shortly.
Understand, I don't trade on expectation. I evaluate the situation, the
various scenarios that may present themselves, and let the market tell me
what is ultimately going to happen, which is to let my short positions run
for now.
My previous post was somewhat speculative I believe regarding what was going
to or could happen on the intermediate term time frame, but possibly
definitive regarding what was going to happen on the medium term time frame.
That's why I took short positions.
So I stand by what I speculated...right or wrong...I think I hedged myself
either way somewhat due to a new cycle forming on the intermediate term time
frame.
By the way, I can not open your attachments. I just get a black rectangular
object so i can't comment on my exact words. If you can resend it to me as an
email, I'd be happy to comment on what I said and was thinking, right or
wrong.
Regarding what I do when my analysis is wrong, I run for the hills. Kidding
aside, large moves tend to occur at the beginning of new cycles. I have
learned to trust Delta over the years I have been using it. Infinately more
times than not it has paid off. The times that "I" have not waited for
confirmation signals as to what was actually going to happen, that's where
stops come into play. In this situation, I trusted Delta, plus had some
admittedly weak indications there was going to be a reaction at least, to
recognize the pending medium term low. Hence my decision to short.
My first short occured on 5/17, bad move due to the report due out the next
day I think, if I have my dates right, but i do know I got slammed right
after my first positon and exited with a small loss. My second on 5/23. I
trade the emini and nasdaq mini plus Profunds mutual funds for my savings and
retirement accounts. I've also been short cocoa and coffee for about a week
now. Both moving down to medium term cycle lows.
I'd be happy to take you up on your offer of the utility so I can send GIF's
to the list. I know some cannot open the bitmaps.
Please resend my previous post so i can comment more accurately.
Thanks.
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