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As Ira
has suggested, the NASDAQ presents an entirely different picture from the DJIA.
The NASDAQ chart appears to show the exhaustion of a hyperbolic rise. The chart
has the signature of a classic mania. The aftermath of a mania typically brings
prices back to the base of the rise - followed by an extended period of
new base building. Of course, this time may be different.
<FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
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There
are several possible extenuating circumstances. The extreme blowoff phase has
corrected and the moving average may become a fulcrum for price action. The Fed
may intervene, as it did in 1987, to abort a freefall. The fundamental strength
of technological innovation may dampen the fall, resulting is a significantly
higher base.
<FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
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<FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Attached is a slightly less optimistic road map than Bill's. Lets see
what happens.
<FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
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<FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>-Stan
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Bill DuBroff
[mailto:wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Wednesday, December 06, 2000 8:34
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] FW: NASDAQ
turning point Dec 8 at 2230 ==> or 3200 ?
The attached is the roadmap that I have
been following over the intermediate term. Short term looking for a rally
into the first of the year to the 3700 area.
Bill
----- Original Message -----
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
<A href="mailto:carl.vanhaesendonck@xxxxxxxxxx";
title=carl.vanhaesendonck@xxxxxxxxxx>Carl Vanhaesendonck
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, December 06, 2000 5:50
AM
Subject: [RT] FW: NASDAQ turning point
Dec 8 at 2230 ==> or 3200 ?
Below is the message I posted on last Monday. What I did
not mention at this time was another price/time cluster; Dec 8 / 3200
pts, instead of Dec 8 / 2230 pts. I did not mention it because I did not
see this alternate possibility worth to mention.Now that the index
jumped a full 10% yesterday...I hope to be wrong of course, because
if the Nasdaq hit the 3200 zone next Friday, it means that the reversal
would be...an up-down reversal, and I would then keep 2230 as the target
for this bear market, probably to be hit the week thereafter, just
before an end-year rally.Anyway, I will stick with my reversal
forcast for Friday Dec 8.CarlFrom: Carl
Vanhaesendonck <carl.vanhaesendonck@xxxx>Date: Mon Dec 4,
2000 1:58pmSubject: NASDAQ turning point Dec 8 at 2230I am
an A Get user and found Friday Dec 8 to be an crucial date for Nasdaq
100, as well in time fibonacci sequence as time/price. We have a
time/price cluster at 2230 on Dec 8.2230 also appears to be a MOB point
and, furthermore, the target for the end of W5.And finally, if you
consider the big congestion of last October between 3000-3500, which
mid-point is therefore 3250, and the starting point of the big down move
in early September from the 4200 area, we have 2200-2250 as the final
target.My "expectation" is then as follows:Today
(Monday Dec 4), the bullish reaction extends further, until
Tuesday/Wednesday and up to 2750-2950. Then we would have 2 horrible
days with a decline down to the 2230 target on Friday the 8th.Now,
another possibility would be a rally from now to Friday 8th, which would
then make Friday as a up-down reversal day.Anyway, there is a lot
pressure in this 2230 area.I also expect the vast majority of advisors
and public to be overwhelmingly bearish if Nasdaq should drop that far,
so that this would still increase the odds for a Major Bottom being
reached.Carl To unsubscribe from this
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