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To: cpbow@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: FUTR (CURR): CD
From: Jeff Harteam <jharteam@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Mon, 22 Dec 1997 09:24:16 +0800
CC: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
References: <349D93A2.66DA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Conrad Bowers wrote:
> I'm guilty most of the time of not looking at longterm charts. But for
> the CD I did look back and noted that we are nearly as low as it has
> ever gone (since 1972): .6983, 1995, .6898, 1986. Wonder if we're
> approaching some kind of "decision point" with it closing at .7000 on
> Fri. Another 20 pts down and it's lower than it has been for over 10
> years. Or are these longterm support points not really that relavent
> since fundamentals must be much different now (esp. compared to 86)?
>
> Conrad Bowers
Hi Conrad:
I've never had any analysis done on the IMM Canadian dollar. I just have
to use the Spot Weekly Canadian Dollar chart to carry on the discussion.
Back in May, I started to notice some very interesting developments in this
market. I noticed the 9-year double top being formed and went on to count
out those waves in the weekly chart. My conclusion is that the dive of the
canucks against the greenback was impending. As you can see from the
attached gifs., it has already finished the corrective fourth and heading
for the fifth wave. As a matter of fact, I send e-mails to all my Canadian
friends to warn them of the possibility of a crash of their currency back
in July. During these past two weeks, Canadian government had intervened
the market through the hike in rates. Royal Bank of Canada also did their
share in buying Canadian dollars in the cash market as well. As you can
see ( please refer to gifs.), the 9-year double top has been cracked last
Friday already. IMHO, these are the usual and only fundamental gestures
the central bank and government can do to protect the currency but the
technical reality of this market can not be avoided. Personally, the
Canadian dollar has all the required setups for a dive against the
greenback. Hope this helps. Regards.
Have a good one
Jeff Harteam
Hong Kong
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