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Re: Recreating the back adjusted vistorical number


  • Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2009 09:49:30 -0600
  • From: Gary Fritz <fritz@xxxxxxxx>
  • Subject: Re: Recreating the back adjusted vistorical number

PureBytes Links

Trading Reference Links

Why estimate your tbill return? You can get accurate historical data at http://www.federalreserve.gov/RELEASES/H15/data.htm. Monthly returns of 3-month tbills is at http://www.federalreserve.gov/RELEASES/H15/data/Monthly/H15_TB_M3.txt.


-------- Original Message  --------
Subject: Re: Recreating the back adjusted vistorical number
From: Chris Evans <evanscje@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: 'DH' <catapult@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: "'Omega List'" <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Date: 10/28/2009 9:34 AM
Thanks for your reply .. so now my tiny little brain needs to break this
down to specifics .. where my carry factor (t-bills-divs) = 2.25% you are
saying it's too low .. OK , so how do I make it bigger.  The bill rate is an
annual average.  You're saying I need to gross up the t-bill figure somehow
so the carry is applied "all at once" .. How (exactly)?

-----Original Message-----
From: DH [mailto:catapult@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] Sent: Tuesday, October 27, 2009 7:37 PM
To: omega List
Subject: Re: Recreating the back adjusted vistorical number

So why is the
sum of the carry adjustments so much greater than I get when allowing for
t-bills-dividends .. this shouldn't be complicated

For one thing, you're using average t-bills and interest x days remaining over the whole period. But the adjustment only happens once every 3 months. So it's not the average carry for the length of the contract, which slowly decreases to zero, it's the 3-months-ahead carry applied all at once.

To do it right, use the individual contracts and calculate the carry from the premium (futures - cash) at the beginning of the contract.