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Re: Re[2]: % return and trading futures vs. stocks



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Friday, October 1, 2004, 3:20:14 PM, you wrote:

>>The dreams are gone email.  I just love it when we get several different posts about what can and absolutely can't be done.

Not what absolutely can't be done. People win the lottery, too. I just don't recommend playing the lottery as a career choice. The dream is not dead, just needs a little reality check.

>>The facts I know are that there is a change in the way successful traders manage their trading as their equity grows.  They make really big returns for a time and then the capital is large enough they don't trade as large as they did.  Or as heavily margined as they did.

For any short period, a leveraged account can explode as long as there is any volatility in the instrument traded. Again, not a recommended career choice.

>>You can't say a guy can't make 20% trading stocks full time.  There are mutual funds that have 10 year track records that are higher than 20% and they use no margin but rather a pretty high cash reserve.

Morningstar lists 3 funds with 20%+ 10 year track records, with 22% being the best performer. 3 out of thousands...

>>Private traders make so much money it is hard to believe.  I don't mean the guys working for a bank.  I mean the guys that work for my buddies that have Billions.  Those guys blow the numbers away all these posts pitch out.

Does anyone on this list make 100%+ per year consistently? I know some of the top institutional traders and they don't come close.

>>It is fact.  No I don't know anyone that made 100% every year trading stocks for decades but I know guys that did that well for several years until the money got so huge they emotionally couldn't or didn't need want to take that risk any longer.

Granted, for short periods, leveraged accounts can do incredibly well (i.e. 1999 OTC traders) but don't confuse a hot tape with a career.

>>They guys I'm talking about get fired if they are not as good as the boss wants.  Even if he is making 60% per year.  If the other guys are making 90% Mr. Sixty is gone and three new guys come in.  Fact.

Please tell Mr. Sixty to call me when he gets fired. I have $100 million for him to manage.

>>So bottom line is you can make as much as you want if you have the nerve and the greed for a lot more money.  When you can't trade out of fear then you will slow down.  If you reach your financial goal you will slow down.  Equity volatility means nothing to someone that is absolutely positively going to make a ton of money this year.  Been there done that.

Did your billionaire friends start with a $25,000 account? Not trying to be nasty, but do you trade for a living? Again, the biggest obstacle to a trader, IMHO, is UNDERCAPITALIZATION.


My two cents,
Seth