Re: puzzling probability and roulette a la Mark Brown

["David Folster" <mr_bond@xxxxxxxxx>]

> In other words, if at any point you asked "what are the chances of
> the NEXT 5 spins being black?" the answer would be 0.5^5.  But if you
> get 4 blacks in a row, and ask "what are the chances of the next 1
> spin being black?" the answer is 50%.

So, what this tells me is, forget waiting for the 4 of one color in a row to
happen -- that is irrelevant.  But if you then just start from 0 and bet the
same color each time, shouldn't your chance of winning at least once over
"the next 5 bets" then be 97%?

Dave