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Let's get ready to rumble!
Get ready for fireworks in November when Bush Jr. heads to Quatar for the WTO meetings...
At Sat, 04 Aug 2001 09:36:14 -0500, Chris Cheatham <nchrisc@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>Mark,
>
>Thanks for the most interesting article. One thing I think of is that in
>the past Saddam has moved, cognitively or otherwise, on major malefic
>planetary aspects. ( I forget what it was in 1990.) Sunday 8/5 , Pluto is
>in exact opposition to Saturn, pretty high on the malefic scale. Meanwhile,
>oil prices are sitting just under a downtrend line off the high, having
>approximately hit it on thu/fri. Bonds arguably ended corrections to
>downtrends last week, and possibly the stock indices as well. It all kinda
>fits together for a blow-up.
>
>Wouldn't it be ironic if Saddam tries to get revenge on "W" for his father's
>deeds?
>
>Chris
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Mark Jurik" <mark@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: "'Omega List'" <Omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Friday, August 03, 2001 8:10 PM
>Subject: Mideast Situation: What impact on oil prices?
>
>
>>
>>
>> Events in the mideast are heating up. Attached is a
>> clipping from http://www.debka.com/
>> that discusses Iraq's recent infiltration into Jordan.
>>
>> Aside from the socio-political turmoil which we'd all
>> like to see resolved peacefully, once CNN gives this
>> full coverage, one can only guess the impact on oil futures.
>>
>> - mark
>>
>>
>
>
>----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>----
>
>
>28 July: Two days ago, DEBKAfiles weekly intelligence newsletter,
>DEBKA-Net-Weekly, in conjunction with the second largest electronic news
>site in America, World Net Daily, broke the news of Iraqi commandos in
>Jordan.
>This is undoubtedly the most important military development in the ten
>months of the Palestinian confrontation with Israel.
>
>Friday, July 27, Koenigs World Watch Daily picked up the story verified
>from a high-placed source in Amman. That source noted that certain unnamed
>forces were at pains to suppress the information.
>
>Saturday, July 28, Koenigs provided a follow-up to the DEBKA-Net-Weekly
>story. It cited the same high-placed Jordanian source as disclosing that a
>second Iraqi force was now poised on the Jordanian frontier, almost ten
>times the number of the first wave of invaders - an estimated 10,000-18,000
>commando troops.
>
>Also today, the important US investigative publication Global Strafor
>reported from Washington that the US is on the point of launching a military
>strike against Iraq.
>
>The original report follows here:
>Saddams First War Move
>
>DEBKA-Net-Weeklys military sources learn that Iraqi president Saddam
>Hussein has secretly sent troops across the frontier in Jordan, striking the
>first spark for igniting a Middle East war.
>
>Iraq military units have been infiltrating neighboring Jordan for the past
>10 days. Their mission: to reach the Israeli border, cross the Jordan River
>and move into the main Palestinian cities of the West Bank Ramallah,
>Jenin, Nablus and Bethlehem and fight alongside the Palestinians.
>The invading units are highly trained and well-equipped commandos able to
>operate and survive in the field for long periods when cut off from their
>headquarters and sources of supply.
>
>They are still in the Jordanian desert. What happens to them over this
>coming weekend could determine if a full-scale war erupts.
>
>The first big Iraqi incursion into Jordan began on July 10 and went on for
>five days. The king at once proclaimed a supreme state of alert in all
>Jordanian army units. Israel poured troops into the Jordan Valley region,
>deploying them along the Jordan River and Jordanian frontier in order to
>block off the West Bank to Iraqi penetration.
>
>According to DEBKA-Net-Weeklys military sources, the Iraqi forces first
>entry point in Jordan was Wadi El Murbah in the central zone of its eastern
>border with Iraq. From there, they moved to Wadi Athner. A second
>penetration area was Wadi Hawran in southwest Iraq, not far from the points
>where the Iraqi, Saudi and Jordanian frontiers meet. The Iraqi forces
>advanced through the wadi, bypassing Jabal Unayzah in Iraq and coming out
>inside Jordanian territory near the town of Ruwayshid.
>
>DEBKA-Net-Weeklys sources in Amman and Jerusalem report that both Israel
>and Jordan view the Iraqi military operation as an act of war against them.
>While maintaining official silence, certainly on the Iraqi invasion of
>Jordan, both countries consider themselves in a state of war with Iraq.
>
>Jordan did attempt in the first days of the incursion to encircle the Iraqi
>intruders and capture them. But some days of intensive effort with airborne
>support showed the Jordanian Special Forces that they are no match for 1,000
>to 1,500 crack Iraqi commandos. Jordanian fighter planes sent into action
>were met by dozens of Iraqi fighters, put up over the penetration regions,
>from Al-Baghdadi, the main Iraqi air base in the central region, south of
>the town of Arrutba. When SA-6 surface-to-air missile batteries at two
>recently reopened Iraqi air bases, H3 in the northwest and H3 in the
>northeast, lit up their radar and locked on to the elderly Jordanian
>aircraft, lacking electronic counter-measures, they turned tail without
>snapping a single reconnaissance photo.
>
>Jordan sent desert reconnaissance patrols and intelligence units into Iraq
>to bring back information on supply lines and reinforcements. What they
>found sounded even louder alarm bells in Amman: The elite Hummarabi division
>of the Republican Guard, equipped with T-72 tanks, was now in position
>between the Jordanian border and the two H bases. They also learned that the
>Iraqi army had sent at least four armored infantry brigades into the area.
>
>Equally troubling, at the beginning of the week, the Iraqi force already in
>Jordan was sighted moving west, several groups having reached the sand dunes
>and wadis known as Abu Haffrah, about 80 km (50 miles) inside Jordanian
>territory.
>
>King Abdullah decided to take command of the Jordanian forces still chasing
>the Iraqis intruders. That is why he looked so worried and tired as though
>he had not slept for nights in his public appearances in Amman in the past
>week. He also appeared in combat fatigues.
>
>DEBKA-Net-Weeklys military sources report that the longer the king, a
>career officer before he ascended the throne, spent out in the field in
>eastern Jordan, the more anxious he became. He realized that overcoming the
>Iraqi force already inside the kingdom would not end his worries. There was
>still the next stage of Saddams plan to face up to, as indicated in the
>latest intelligence reports on his desk. Iraq had a second wave of troops
>poised ready to cross into Jordan. Furthermore, Saddam Hussein had secretly
>appointed his eldest son, Qusay, supreme commander of what the Iraqi
>president was now describing as the Iraqi-Jordanian-Israeli front.
>At a military ceremony attended by top Iraqi generals, Saddam, the reports
>said, had sworn to spare neither effort nor money to provide Qusay with any
>reinforcements he might request.
>
>Qusay is said to have set up his headquarters at al-Bagdad air force base,
>to the rear of the Iraqi forces deployed between the H bases and the
>Jordanian border.
>
>Jordanian intelligence also reported a large concentration of Iraqi forces
>on the main roads leading from Iraq to Damascus and from Iraq to the Golan
>Heights.
>
>The Jordanian king was forced to realize that he was not dealing merely with
>a small-scale invasion of mobile Iraqi forces, but with preparations by his
>eastern neighbor for war on a regional scale, far beyond the scope of the
>Jordanian army on its own.
>
>What the intelligence reports omitted to mention was whether Saddam
>Husseins move had been coordinated with either - or both - Palestinian
>Authority chairman Yasser Arafat and Syrian president Bashar Assad.
>
>DEBKA-Weekly-Net sources in Jerusalem and Washington report that at the
>beginning of the week, King Abdullah put his overseas connections to the
>test. He asked President George Bush for American intervention against the
>Iraqi threat. He also turned to Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon to
>invoke the secret Israeli-Jordanian defense pact signed by the late King
>Hussein and Yitzhak Rabin that obliges Israel to act against military or
>terrorist elements endangering the existence of the Kingdom of Jordan or the
>Hashemite throne.
>
>Several of DEBKA-Net-Weeklys sources report that the ways in which the pact
>may be implemented are under discussion between Israel and Jordan in
>consultation with Washington, which has its own plans for building up the
>military pressure on Saddam Hussein.
>
>A top Israeli official said in answer to a question from DEBKA-Net-Weekly:
>We may be back in the 1991 Gulf War, when the administration of Bush Sr.
>depended heavily on an Arab coalition and demanded that Israeli stand aside.
>We were therefore prevented from fighting back against the Scud missiles
>falling on Tel Aviv.
>
> Now, too, Sharon has no wish to get involved in American regional
>considerations. Our only interest is to stop Iraqi forces from reaching the
>West Bank and linking up with the Palestinians. Those words are the key to
>Sharons statement Thursday, July 26, to a group of Likud members in Ariel:
> At the end of the road, he said, there are American interests. They want
>to step up their campaign against Iraq and for this they need the backing of
>Arab states. They dont want us (in the way), and I take this as a warning
>signal.
>
>These words are completely untypical. Sharon never says a word that is not
>upbeat when he refers to his relations with the Bush administration.
>The coming weekend will be crucial in this regard.
>
> The Jordanian-Iraqi clashes, if they continue, could be the first military
>step on the road to a Middle East war without the world even noticing.
>DEBKA-Net-WeeklysMiddle East experts point out that if even a small number
>of Iraqi commandos already in Jordan actually reach the West Bank,
>Abdullahs situation will become complicated. He cannot interfere without
>being branded a collaborator with the Jewish state. But letting Saddam get
>away with the move and allowing Iraqi troops to cross the Jordan River would
>effectively reduce him to Saddams puppet.
>
>Qusays appointment as supreme commander of the new front is another
>embarrassment. Qusay hates the Hashemites and would enjoy humiliating
>Abdullah. Forcing Abdullah to receive him as commander of Iraqs invading
>force and cooperate with him would be tantamount to making the king bend the
>knee.
>
>Saddam, meanwhile, appears to be in a win-win situation. He is making good
>on his promises to a series of PLO delegations visiting Baghdad in the last
>10 months to open a second front against Israel to aid the Palestinian
>battle against Israel. This would show up the rest of the Arab world as
>shirking their sacred duty towards the Palestinian struggle.
>
>He would also appear in the heroic light of sending an Arab army to fight
>Israeli head-on, instead of hiding behind long-range missiles.
>
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