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Re: Cause based trading


  • To: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
  • Subject: Re: Cause based trading
  • From: mr_bond@xxxxxx
  • Date: Mon, 29 Dec 1997 16:04:43 -0800 (PST)
  • In-reply-to: <199712292023.MAA21903@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>

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To A.J.:

> Surely you'll admit that price action can (and very often does) have a
>
> causal effect on further price action.

Don't get me wrong -- I fully admit that price is used in the decision
making process for a large number of traders.  All I am saying is that
the *very last thing* that happens before the price bar hits your screen
is that a buy/sell transaction has taken place in the pit.  I totally
agree that traders use a vast array of indicators (including price) to
come to their decisions, however there is still the last step before
price movement -- buying and selling.

> While nothing can predict price movement with certainty, certain
> short-term
> models of TA can yield very impressive results.  It is my view that
> the
> serious shortcomings are more a product of interpretation and
> implementation
> on the part of some practitioners, rather than being an intrinsic flaw
> in
> the concepts themselves.

This could very well be the case.  You know, "A winning trader can win
with a losing system and a losing trader can lose with a winning system"
and all that.

> Best of Luck,

And to you!

Dave

To Peter:

> detect changes which can warn of market sentiment changing.   BUT and
> this is
> a very very big BUT.  Here we are talking about short term intra day
> price
> swings.  You can research away, but what I think you will find is for
> daytrading, the price is going to lead any other information.
>              My main, point is that in short term, ie daytrading, you
> are
> going to find that any and all causitive things show up in price,
> before you
> will see them elsewhere.

Yes, I actually suspected that this might be the case, due to the
fast-paced environment.  However, like I said, there can't be any harm
in at least having a look.  Thanx for your comments.

Dave