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John,
The important thing is: how does a system walk
forward. I have a hundreds of systems that out-perform the
"slide-show"... if you run the tests on historical data. Each optimized
variable adds another layer of "improbability" to actual
performance. If we continue to add "whistles and bells" (variables),
we continue to improve are testing results. The more complicated, the
better...right? This is a very big intellectual
trap.
I think the Chamness presentation is worth
everyone's time. For a dummy like me, I have trouble understanding
everything. I know one thing: I have influenced him in his research.
When I met him three years ago, Tim Tillson and Dave were flashing me equity
curves that looked like straight lines (over-optimized algorythmns). They
always had trouble imitating those results in "real time".
I've learned, they've learned and many others have
learned a simple truth: simple is robust and walks forward....complicated
looks wonderful in history and fails in actual trading. Enjoy, the
Chamness presentation.
Take care,
Steve
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, December 04, 2004 11:59
PM
Subject: [Metastockusers] Slide
Show
Thanks for sharing the slide show material, Steve. I
tested most of
the stuff years ago. After I got your material I rehashed
the tests,
just to make sure I didn't miss anything. The numbers are
pretty
good if you don't mind a lot of short duration choppy trades.
(My
experience.)
For the newbie's who don't have anything better
to use, this will be
benefical, and it's easy to program. And of course
the thing that
makes it really good is it's "FREE".
I've seen the
exploration material that Roy is presenting in his
newsletter over the
next three issues. I use very similar code and
the results have been
substantially superior to the results I've seen
from the slide show
material. However, the code was written for
equities and not futures, so I
don't know what it would do in those
markets, and I can't test it there
because I don't have the data.
Anyway, thanks again for the slide show
material.
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