|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
<x-html><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2614.3401" name=GENERATOR></HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#d8d8d8>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> Mark,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> You always have good and practical things to
share.......thanks! I like the way you define "signal" and
"trigger"....and you are correct</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>that I analyze the S&P rather than trade it,
this is because my main involvement in the S&P is long term (401K stuff),
and for this</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>reason I have been out of it since late August (I
cant short my 401k). Naturally I am looking for a good place to enter back into
the</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>market (I will enter when the trend proves itself
up. ).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> As for triggers, I have been using entry
methods based on monthly contracts in the grains (also using pit prices thanks
to you).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I am getting more comfortable with the method based
on the "Bands", but since it is partially subjective (cant seem to find that
elusive</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>mechanical system <g>) I will
wait</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2> until further testing before I use real
money. I just expressed this using the S&P since most of the</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>markets discussed on the list</FONT><FONT
face=Arial size=2> seem to be stock related, but now that Steve is posting some
of his commodity trades, I may start </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>posting some grain trades (anyone
interested?).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> As always, I appreciate the
tutorial.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial
size=2> Adam
Hefner</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:scheier@xxxxxxxxx"; title=scheier@xxxxxxxxx>scheier</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, October 16, 1999 4:51 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: S&P500</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Hello Adam!
<P>Enjoyed the charts. Am reminded when reading your posts on the
difference between analysis and trading. It's seems the conclusions
I've come to about this are best translated into what I think is the difference
between a signal and a trigger. A signal may tell me things about
the bigger picture that might give me comfort to the trade, or provide further
background, but it might not be the best place to take a position.
On the other hand, the snap back reversal of 4 days ago in the s&p (which
your charts don't show because they incorporate all session pricing as opposed
to pit-session only), was a gimmie for me as a trade trigger. It
wasn't till it broke into a new low that this highly profitable trade confirmed
my suspicions about the bigger trend. But if I needed those
confirmations to have taken the trade before hand, I never would have been
short. Now that this low and support point has been taken out, I'm
on alert to a reversal. And this despite the Signals are all saying
the trend is now more clearly down.
<P>It's not that break downs from h&s necklines can't work as triggers too,
but I'd hate to be risking real equity to find out so late in the trade.
<P>And thanks for reminding me of Murphy's rules regarding validation of this
kind of break out. That will surely help us all, whether just
getting in, or trying to decide whether to cover and run.
<P>One more note regarding the same subject: I also find that using
the continuation charts helps me get the big picture thing, but I'd never trust
making trade decisions off them. In other words, if the signal is
not in the current contract I'm trading, I find it a risky stretch of faith to
rationalize the trade by what I see in the continuous contract.
<P>An interesting example that caution can be seen between the March Sugar
contract and the Sugar continuation chart. It's tempting to be
selling the "break" of a neckline in the continuation chart, but the corrective
nature of the current sugar decline in the March contract suggests the
short trade has little life left in it and could culminate in a rapid reversal
to new contract highs after such a breakdown. In other words, the
break might be only good for a day trade in the March contract, even though such
a break in the continuous contract suggests much bigger things below.
<P>Scheier <BR>
<P>vonhef wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE="CITE">
<STYLE></STYLE>
<FONT face=Arial><FONT size=-1>Well, as most of you have probably noticed, the
S&P 500 has dropped below the neck-line.</FONT></FONT><FONT
face=Arial><FONT size=-1>In the classic technical analysis this is a very
bearish signal. My long term trend has also</FONT></FONT><FONT
face=Arial><FONT size=-1>turned down today......this is the first time since
October of 98.</FONT></FONT><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=-1>As
always....comments welcome.</FONT></FONT><FONT face=Arial><FONT
size=-1> Adam
Hefner</FONT></FONT> </BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Oct 17 08:58:51 1999
Return-Path: <majordom@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Received: from listserv.equis.com (listserv.equis.com [204.246.137.2])
by purebytes.com (8.8.7/8.8.7) with ESMTP id FAA21532
for <neal@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Sun, 17 Oct 1999 05:59:59 -0700
Received: (from majordom@xxxxxxxxx)
by listserv.equis.com (8.8.7/8.8.7) id UAA31741
for metastock-outgoing; Sun, 17 Oct 1999 20:44:16 -0600
X-Authentication-Warning: listserv.equis.com: majordom set sender to owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx using -f
Received: from freeze.metastock.com (freeze.metastock.com [204.246.137.5])
by listserv.equis.com (8.8.7/8.8.7) with ESMTP id UAA31738
for <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Sun, 17 Oct 1999 20:44:13 -0600
Received: from pimout7-int.prodigy.net (pimout7-ext.prodigy.net [207.115.59.180])
by freeze.metastock.com (8.8.5/8.8.5) with ESMTP id GAA24596
for <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Sun, 17 Oct 1999 06:29:57 -0600 (MDT)
Received: from jeff (MIAMB107-42.splitrock.net [209.156.29.19])
by pimout7-int.prodigy.net (8.8.5/8.8.5) with SMTP id IAA193038
for <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Sun, 17 Oct 1999 08:15:45 -0400
Message-ID: <000901bf1899$738ac380$131d9cd1@xxxx>
From: "Jeff" <jcob3@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Elliot Wave POV on MU
Date: Sun, 17 Oct 1999 08:16:20 -0400
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
X-Priority: 3
X-MSMail-Priority: Normal
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.3110.3
Sender: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Precedence: bulk
Reply-To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Status:
Thanks for the POV, Lenny, but a little education (mine) is in order. Does
the chart you attached suggest that the 5th wave is starting and that we can
expect a movement at least up to if not through the resistance at 85.00? I
really don't know much about Elliot Wave Analysis beyond that it seems to be
very complicated and, at times, somewhat subjective as to where waves begin
and end.
Good Trading
Jeff
PS to all: I don't even remember who made the suggestion that we actually
start discussing our methods and trades, but I want to thank whoever it was.
I find this far more interesting and informative than looking at endless
posts regarding which data vendor stinks today and complaints about the
software (though these are valid posts so please don't flame me).
-----Original Message-----
From: ROSOW@xxxxxxx <ROSOW@xxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, October 16, 1999 2:18 PM
Subject: Re: B&B Fear Alert
>Jeff - Here is an Elliott Wave point of view for MU - Lenny
>
|