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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> I tightened my stops up
early this morning and saw that CMB, CY, and EGGS had all closed below the new
stop yesterday. I watched the market off and on this morning and finally
closed those positions just after lunch. I still think EGGS will retest
40, but may drop more first. I'll watch it close for a re-entry
point. New stops and targets below.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>JimG</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>
<TABLE border=1 borderColor=#444f00 cellPadding=2 cellSpacing=2 width=588>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD colSpan=7 height=21><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Open Positions</B></FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%>
<P></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Date</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Entry</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Target</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Stop</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Current</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>%</B></FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Symbol</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Opened</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Price</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Price</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Price</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Price</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Gain/Loss</B></FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>AOL</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>10/09/98</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$44.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$122.00</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$79.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$88.06</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>96.79%</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>CD</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>11/30/98</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$19.69</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$41.00</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$16.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$20.63</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>4.76%</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>CCI</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>11/16/98</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$44.44</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$69.00</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$46.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$50.31</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>13.22%</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>CMB</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>11/18/98</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>61 1/5</FONT></P></TD>
<TD colSpan=2 height=21 width=28%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial
size=2>
<P align=left>Stopped 12/02/98</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$62.50</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>2.15%</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>COHU</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>11/16/98</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>18 3/8</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$36.00</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$20.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$22.56</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>22.79%</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>CY</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>10/12/98</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$8.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD colSpan=2 height=21 width=28%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial
size=2>
<P align=left>Stopped 12/02/98</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$10.06</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>14.97%</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>EGGS</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>11/27/98</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>24 1/4</FONT></P></TD>
<TD colSpan=2 height=21 width=28%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial
size=2>
<P align=left>Stopped 12/02/98</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$23.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>-2.06%</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>MDM</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>11/23/98</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$4.42</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$12.00</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$3.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$4.38</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>-0.94%</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>MSFT</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>10/09/98</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$93.19</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$143.00</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$123.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$126.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P
align=right>36.02%</FONT></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
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Message-ID: <000f01be1e59$b3a96ba0$bf662599@xxxx>
From: "Jim Greening" <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Weekly Pick
Date: Wed, 2 Dec 1998 19:32:46 -0500
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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Guy,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2>
Glad to hear that you are still long. I raised my stops last night and
CMB, CY, and EGGS were all below them. I watched off and on this morning
and covered those positions shortly after lunch. I still think EGGS will
try to test 40 again, but may go down first. I'll be watching to get back
in. However, I think I'll go with more CCI and INTC when/if I go back to
financials and semis. I don't think this market run is over yet, just that
those stocks aren't the place to be right now. I'm still happy with my
other long positions, but may change my mind tomorrow <G>.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> I took a quick look at MAX and HDL in
my QP2 database. The numbers look real interesting in MAX, but I'd want it
to break out of that long gradual down trend channel before really getting
interested. HDL also has good numbers and a much better looking chart last
week. It looked like it had broken out, but quickly pulled back below the
breakout this week. I'd want to see it trade back above 13 1/2 to confirm
the breakout. A buy stop at 13 5/8 with the subsequent stop set at
whatever the current low turns out to be could be a good play. I'll
transfer the data to MetaStock and take a long look later. Both are
interesting charts, thanks!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JimG</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Guy Tann <<A
href="mailto:grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx";>grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To: </B><A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Wednesday, December 02, 1998 12:37 AM<BR><B>Subject: </B>RE: Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><SPAN class=970573304-02121998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Jim</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=970573304-02121998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=970573304-02121998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>We're
still on a buy since 10/1. We've added a new indicator to the one we've
used for the last several years. Not bad by itself, but when combined with
our other indicators, seems to eliminate a lot of the big swings and us getting
stopped out, even though we're right long term. Lets me sleep a little
better <G>.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=970573304-02121998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=970573304-02121998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>With
this added indicator, we seem to be taking positions for a longer period of time
(unusual for us, where long term capital gains are calculated in 2 weeks or less
<BG>). Actually, we're sort of bored without the
'action'. I'm thinking of taking the little guy to Vegas for a long
weekend.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=970573304-02121998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=970573304-02121998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>In the
process of going back and evaluating it for the last 3 years. I've just
looked at the last 6 months, so far. This is a new one my dad came up
with. My dad is amazing. e got his Masters from Michigan in 1932 in
Statistical Economics and has forgotten more than I ever knew. He's going
to be 90 on his next birthday and we've still got him cranking out code and
testing new indicators for 8 hours a day <VBG>. My mom says it's the
only thing that's kept him going for years. He had a heart attack about 5
years ago and a few weeks later went in to see the doctor. The MD told him
he had good news and bad news for him. The bad news was he had 2 heart
attacks. The good news was that they were 2 weeks prior and that they only
really worry about the first 48 hours, so "here's some nitro pills, and
I'll see you in six months."</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=970573304-02121998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=970573304-02121998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>My
cousin, the doctor, told us that he has the best disease you can get.
Average life span after the attack is about 5 years and what usually happens is
that you go to sleep one night and just don't wake up. I guess that's
better than the route I've chosen. Being shot by an irate, 25 year old
husband at the age of 93 <in my dreams>.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=970573304-02121998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=970573304-02121998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Anyway, I've been saving your posts for that period where I have some
time to spend studying them. Maybe I'll learn something about
equities. My wife just put a lot of her 401k into Mercury Air Group
(MAX). She's done really well buying that from 6.5 to 7.5 and selling out
above 9 (sometimes 11). Also do me a favor and check out Handleman (I
think that's the spelling). They're in the record or music distribution
business in Michigan. My family used to lease them several warehouses back
in the 50s. Friend of mine's mother, who has never bought a share of stock
in her whole life, just opened her first brokerage account and bought this
one. She and her family made their fortune over the last 60 years in real
estate. For her to buy any stock would be like lightning striking someone
in a cave <G>. Take a look at it and let me know what you
think. I might have to buy some also.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=970573304-02121998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=970573304-02121998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Regards</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=970573304-02121998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=970573304-02121998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Guy</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=970573304-02121998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]<B>On Behalf Of</B> Jim
Greening<BR><B>Sent:</B> Monday, November 30, 1998 4:31 PM<BR><B>To:</B>
metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: Weekly Pick<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Guy,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2>
Nope, with the run up we've had the last couple of weeks they were too far
away. I haven't downloaded today's data yet, but EGGS closed a couple of
points above yesterdays stop and AOL is still about ten points above yesterdays
stop. However, if the internet stocks still look weak in the morning
instead of bouncing back, I will close those two positions. I almost
closed EGGS this morning when it hit 40, but my target was 43 - now I wish I had
<VBG>. I think we still have a lot of up move left in this bull, but
the internets may have peaked for a while. Then again, what do I know
<G>.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JimG</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Guy Tann <<A
href="mailto:grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx";>grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To: </B><A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Monday, November 30, 1998 6:48 PM<BR><B>Subject: </B>RE: Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><SPAN class=160141323-30111998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Jim</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=160141323-30111998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=160141323-30111998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>Did
your stops help you out today?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=160141323-30111998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=160141323-30111998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Regards</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=160141323-30111998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=160141323-30111998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Guy</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=160141323-30111998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]<B>On Behalf Of</B> Jim
Greening<BR><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, November 28, 1998 4:24 PM<BR><B>To:</B>
Metastock<BR><B>Subject:</B> Weekly Pick<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> If this keeps up, I'll
have to quit my day job for sure <G>. I can't get over the size of
the gains I've been getting (see below) but I'm sure enjoying it while I
can. I'm also starting to be seriously concerned that we must be getting
close to a blow-off speculative top. However, as long as the market
indices are showing strong up trends as they clearly are now, I'll keep
replacing closed positions with new long positions. Of course, I'll watch
my stops closely while I'm doing that.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> Speaking of
stops, I was stopped out of IDTI during the week and will close my IOM position
Monday. I moved my IOM stop us last night above the stock's close
price. It had made a sideways move out of the trend channel, so I'll close
that position Monday at a good profit. I wanted another Christmas Special
type stock to replace IOM. I had a hard time deciding between Cendant (CD)
and Security Dynamics Tech (SDTI). The charts are very similar and SDTI's
fundamentals are slightly better, but I decided on CD to get some
diversification outside the tech, internet, and financial areas. CD is
involved in several businesses that cross market to customers worldwide.
Cendant resulted from a merger of membership based discount service provider CUC
Intl and hospitality franchiser HFS. Its real estate (Century 21, Coldwell
Banker), relocation, and mortgage services complement its operations in home
improvement referrals and mailings to people who have moved. It's involved
in travel and hospitality (Days Inn, Howard Johnson, Ramada, Avis), vehicle
fleet management, financial services, and entertainment and educational
software. The story here is that its stock was rocked by an accounting
scandal at the former CUC. I'm hoping that is behind them and management
can now devote their time and efforts to running their
business. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> CD closed at 18
Friday. It made an all time high of 41.6875 on 4/6/98 just before the news
hit on the accounting problems. With that news the bottom dropped out of
the stock and it hit a low of 6 1/2 on 10/8/98. It rebounded from there
and broke out of its Intermediate Term Down Trend Channel on 10/20/98. It
went on up from there and gave a Trader Vic type buy signal with a trend
reversal confirmation when it broke out of its Horizontal Channel on
11/20/98. It then moved sideways for a couple of days before jumped up
this week on good volume. I constructed a standard deviation Short Term Up
Trend Channel but didn't like it since the bottom was too far away from the
stock price to give a good stop so I deleted it. I then constructed a
Trader Vic type up trend line from the 10/08 low and that looked much better and
should hold if this is a true breakout. That up trend line is currently at
15 1/8. I also got a MetaStock Support/Resistance, Temo CMO buy signal on
11/04/98 and the those indicators are looking strong. I'll open a position
some time Monday morning. I'll set my initial target just under the old
high at 41 and my stop just under the up trend line at 14 3/4.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>JimG </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>
<DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> If this keeps up, I'll
have to quit my day job for sure <G>. I can't get over the size of
the gains I've been getting (see below) but I'm sure enjoying it while I
can. I'm also starting to be seriously concerned that we must be getting
close to a blow-off speculative top. However, as long as the market
indices are showing strong up trends as they clearly are now, I'll keep
replacing closed positions with new long positions. Of course, I'll watch
my stops closely while I'm doing that.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> Speaking of
stops, I was stopped out of IDTI during the week and will close my IOM position
Monday. I moved my IOM stop us last night above the stock's close
price. It had made a sideways move out of the trend channel, so I'll close
that position Monday at a good profit. I wanted another Christmas Special
type stock to replace IOM. I had a hard time deciding between Cendant (CD)
and Security Dynamics Tech (SDTI). The charts are very similar and SDTI's
fundamentals are slightly better, but I decided on CD to get some
diversification outside the tech, internet, and financial areas. CD is
involved in several businesses that cross market to customers worldwide.
Cendant resulted from a merger of membership based discount service provider CUC
Intl and hospitality franchiser HFS. Its real estate (Century 21, Coldwell
Banker), relocation, and mortgage services complement its operations in home
improvement referrals and mailings to people who have moved. It's involved
in travel and hospitality (Days Inn, Howard Johnson, Ramada, Avis), vehicle
fleet management, financial services, and entertainment and educational
software. The story here is that its stock was rocked by an accounting
scandal at the former CUC. I'm hoping that is behind them and management
can now devote their time and efforts to running their
business. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> CD closed at 18
Friday. It made an all time high of 41.6875 on 4/6/98 just before the news
hit on the accounting problems. With that news the bottom dropped out of
the stock and it hit a low of 6 1/2 on 10/8/98. It rebounded from there
and broke out of its Intermediate Term Down Trend Channel on 10/20/98. It
went on up from there and gave a Trader Vic type buy signal with a trend
reversal confirmation when it broke out of its Horizontal Channel on
11/20/98. It then moved sideways for a couple of days before jumped up
this week on good volume. I constructed a standard deviation Short Term Up
Trend Channel but didn't like it since the bottom was too far away from the
stock price to give a good stop so I deleted it. I then constructed a
Trader Vic type up trend line from the 10/08 low and that looked much better and
should hold if this is a true breakout. That up trend line is currently at
15 1/8. I also got a MetaStock Support/Resistance, Temo CMO buy signal on
11/04/98 and the those indicators are looking strong. I'll open a position
some time Monday morning. I'll set my initial target just under the old
high at 41 and my stop just under the up trend line at 14 3/4.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2>
CD.GIF attached.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>JimG </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>
<TABLE border=1 borderColor=#a84e00 cellPadding=2 cellSpacing=2 width=588>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD colSpan=7 height=21><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Open Positions</B></FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%>
<P></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Date</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Entry</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Target</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Stop</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Current</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>%</B></FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Symbol</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Opened</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Price</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Price</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Price</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Price</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>Gain/Loss</B></FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>AOL</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>10/09/98</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$44.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$118.00</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$75.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$94.88</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>112.01%</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>CCI</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>11/16/98</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$44.44</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$69.00</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$46.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$52.88</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>18.99%</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>CMB</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>11/18/98</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>61 1/5</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$75.00</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$61.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$65.44</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>6.95%</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>COHU</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>11/16/98</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>18 3/8</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$36.00</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$19.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$24.00</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>30.61%</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>CY</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>10/12/98</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$8.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$14.00</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$9.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$10.31</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>17.86%</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>EGGS</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>11/27/98</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>24 1/4</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$43.00</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$23.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$31.63</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>30.41%</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>IOM</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>11/02/98</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$5.50</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$12.00</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$7.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$7.38</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>34.09%</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>MDM</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>11/23/98</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$4.42</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$12.00</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$3.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$4.38</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>-0.94%</FONT></P></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=21 width=14%><B><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>MSFT</B></FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=center>10/09/98</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$93.19</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$143.00</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$119.75</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=14%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P align=right>$128.06</FONT></P></TD>
<TD height=21 width=17%><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>
<P
align=right>37.43%</FONT></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></FONT></DIV></DIV></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Dec 02 21:46:30 1998
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Date: Wed, 02 Dec 1998 19:48:27 -0700
From: Fred Bender <fbender@xxxxxxxxxxx>
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Subject: Re: Nov 27 double top
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Guy,
I guess it depends how you look at it. If we're still in the old, secular bull
market, dating back to 1982 or 1974 depending how you count, we just had a
double-top, accompanied by extreme bullish sentiment, and a secular bear market
is likely to begin. Alternatively, if we just completed a cyclical bear
market on 10/8 (S&P cash index), the kind that comes along every four years,
then we're now in a new cyclical bull market, with staying power of at least
another two years. Which is it? Who knows? BTW, I sold all my mutual funds
Monday and, hopfully, will be able to get back in lower, once sentiment numbers
get back to friendlier levels. So I'm operating on the assumption that a new
cyclical bull has begun. Time will tell.
Fred Bender
Guy Tann wrote:
> When looking at the Dow or the S&P, it appears that we made a double top on
> Nov 27 or am I imagining things again (those flashbacks from the abuses of
> the 60s <G>)?
>
> Guy
|