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Once upon a time(1995-9), myself and several other noteworthy professionals,
were enlisted to write terribly complex code and backtest-forward the heck
out of said code. After hours and hours of investigating conflicting reports
and data output, we discovered numerous inborn TS4-Excel-data provider
computing errors, several which have been revealed on this list and
elsewhere. We assumed that the PE was doing the 'same thing' each time we
put on a system and turned the status 'on', 'off' and 'on'... it wasn't and
doesn't. We still don't know why. There are many different areas for these
computing error... inherent coding faults, loading indicators in a certain
order; loading charts in another order, down tick vs uptick calcualtion...
After spending countless hours and dollars, and almost losing friends and
business associates due to differing opinions on accuracy and insistence on
accountability(OS, TS4, Excel, C++ progs, DLL's), three of the individuals
simply left the idea of making money in the markets, returning to their
'other' vocations.
Perhaps for very simple systems, TS products are adequate and its errors are
reproducible; if you can accept the 'small' errors such as Mr. Fulks as
recently identifed...but can you, really? For complex code and
reduplication in real time? don't bet on it... ever. Until another platform
arises, I continue to utilize extradordinarily 'robust' systems that can
accept data errors, down time, bad ticks, etc....and rebound in 60 minutes
with clean data.. that was my solution: duplicate as closely as possible
what I would have to do if I were in the pit. Life and data are not squeaky
clean as we would all like to believe.
It is interesting to reflect upon my past and present state of mind with
regard to identifying profitable scenarios, and would like to present
commentary by Wilson EB Jr An Introduction to Scientific Research. NY, Dover
Publications, Inc., 1990:
" The experimentor himself can easily be deceived in interpreting the
results by his personal interest in the outcome." He noted, "Even in such
routine matters as recording long lists of numbers or other simple data, it
has been demonstrated that the mistakes which are made are usually more
numerous in the direction personally favored by the recorder. No human being
is even approximately free from these subjective influences."
Be careful this week...
lee aston
hawaii
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