[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]

[EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Buy High or Low? - an informal poll



PureBytes Links

Trading Reference Links

Are we having wine or coffee?:-)

I would go for strategy Y.

Preston



--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jose Silva" <josesilva22@xxx> 
wrote:
>
> 
> Hmmm... perhaps I've made it sound more complicated than it needs 
to 
> be.
> 
> Imagine it's 7pm in the evening, 3 hours after market close, and 
the 
> day's final data arrives.  We now know today's Open, High, Low and 
> Close of the day with 100% certainty.
> 
> We look at our finalized data, and find that today our favorite 
stock 
> has closed within 4% of today's High.  Our decision now is:
> 
>  1) Go Long at tomorrow's Open (strategy Y).
> 
> OR
> 
>  2) Go Short at tomorrow's Open (strategy X).
> 
> 
> Which strategy is more likely to be profitable in the long run?
> 
> ---------------------------------------------
> 
> Strategy Y:
> ==========
> 
> * Buy Long at tomorrow's Open if today's Close was within
>   4% of today's High.
> 
> * Sell Long at tomorrow's Open if today's Close was within
>   4% of today's Low.
> 
> 
> Strategy X:
> ==========
> 
> * Buy Long at tomorrow's Open if today's Close was within
>   4% of today's Low.
> 
> * Sell Long at tomorrow's Open if today's Close was within
>   4% of today's High.
> 
> ---------------------------------------------
> 
> 
> Y is basically a short-term trend-following strategy.
> X is basically a short-term contrarian strategy.
> 
> So, which strategy is more likely to be profitable in the long run, 
Y 
> or X?
> 
> 
> jose '-)
> http://www.metastocktools.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, pumrysh <no_reply@> wrote:
> >
> > Exactly my point...we just don't know so always use stops.:-)
> > 
> > Preston
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jose Silva" 
<josesilva22@> 
> > wrote:
> >
> > "Buy Long at next day's Open..."
> > 
> > No hindsight required.
> > 
> > No unknowns, no known unknowns, no unknown knowns, no unknown 
> > unknowns.  (With apologies to that great poet, Donald Rumsfeld) ;)
> > http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/003282.php
> > 
> > 
> > jose '-)
> > http://metastocktools.com
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, pumrysh <no_reply@> wrote:
> >
> > Jose,
> > 
> > Poses some interesting thoughts but IMO there are only 2 events
> > that you will know...the open and the close. The low and high will
> > not be known until after the open and right at the close. As far 
> > as the profit it would be nice if we knew the trend. Since
> > everything is unknown my answer would be: 
> > 4) I don't know
> > 
> > Preston
> >   
> >
> > 
> > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jose Silva" 
> > <josesilva22@> wrote:
> >
> > I've posted this poll on another usergroup, but it is currently 
> > attracting little interest there.  The question deals with our 
> > perception of the market vs its reality.
> > 
> > I can't post a Poll here, but it would be interesting to get some 
> > informal results of members' opinions.
> > 
> > 
> > ----------------------------------------------
> > 
> > Strategy Y:
> > 
> > Buy Long when Close is within 4% of today's High.
> > (Buy Long at next day's Open when the Close is near the top of 
> > today's High-Low range).
> > 
> > Sell Long when Close is within 4% of today's Low
> > (Sell Long at next day's Open when the Close is near the bottom 
of 
> > today's High-Low range).
> > 
> > 
> > Strategy X (Y reversed):
> > 
> > Buy Long when Close is within 4% of today's Low
> > (Buy Long at next day's Open when the Close is near the bottom of 
> > today's High-Low range).
> > 
> > Sell Long when Close is within 4% of today's High.
> > (Sell Long at next day's Open when the Close is near the top of 
> > today's High-Low range).
> > 
> > 
> > Question:
> > Which trading strategy is likely to be more profitable, Y or X?
> > 
> > 1) Strategy Y
> > 2) Strategy X
> > 3) no difference - both are identical
> > 4) I don't know
> > 
> > ----------------------------------------------
> > 
> > 
> > To make it easier to visualize the simple condition signals, 
below 
> > is the MS indicator code:
> > 
> > ==============
> > Poll indicator
> > ==============
> > ----8<-------------------------------------
> > 
> > {©Copyright 2006 Jose Silva.
> >   For personal use only - trade at own risk.
> >   http://metastocktools.com }
> > 
> > { User inputs }
> > pr1:=Input("Entry: min Close's % dist [0~100%] from bar's 
> > Low",0,100,4)/100;
> > pr2:=Input("Exit: min Close's % dist [0~100%] from bar's 
> > High",0,100,4)/100;
> > rev:=Input("Reverse Close position condition?  [0]No,  
> > [1]Yes",0,1,0) ;
> > plot:=Input("Signals:  [1]Clean,  [2]All,  [3]Trade 
> > binary",1,3,1);
> > delay:=Input("Entry and Exit delay",0,5,0);
> > 
> > { Close x% of High-Low range signals }
> > rangePos:=(C-L)/Max(H-L,.00001);
> > entry1:=rangePos<=pr1;
> > exit1:=rangePos>=(1-pr2);
> > 
> > { Reverse signals? }
> > entry:=If(rev,exit1,entry1);
> > exit:=If(rev,entry1,exit1);
> > 
> > { Clean signals }
> > init:=Cum(IsDefined(entry+exit))=1;
> > bin:=ValueWhen(1,entry-exit<>0 OR init,entry);
> > long:=bin*(Alert(bin=0,2)
> >  OR entry*Cum(entry)=1);
> > short:=(bin=0)*(Alert(bin,2)
> >  OR exit*Cum(exit)=1);
> > signals:=long-short;
> > 
> > { Plot in own window }
> > 0;
> > Ref(If(plot=2,entry,0),-delay);
> > Ref(If(plot=1,signals,
> >  If(plot=2,-exit,bin)),-delay)
> > 
> > ----8<-------------------------------------
> > 
> > 
> > jose '-)
> > http://metastocktools.com
>





 
Yahoo! Groups Links

<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/equismetastock/

<*> Your email settings:
    Individual Email | Traditional

<*> To change settings online go to:
    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/equismetastock/join
    (Yahoo! ID required)

<*> To change settings via email:
    mailto:equismetastock-digest@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    mailto:equismetastock-fullfeatured@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
    equismetastock-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
    http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/