[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]

Weekly Pick

PureBytes Links

Trading Reference Links

     I want to start off by wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and a
Happy New Year.  We are leaving Tuesday to celebrate my wife's parents
63 wedding anniversary and are staying there for Christmas, so I'll be
off line for a couple of weeks.
     I think the market was out to get us this week <G>.  I was
stopped out of my IOM, OSU, and NPD positions during the week.  That
leaves me with BSC, CHB, CPU, PAYX, and SPF stock, DHIYX bond fund,
and ASND, MADGF, and PFE LEAP calls.  Since I had real good profits in
IOM and NPD, I built up a lot of buying power.  However, after looking
at all the indices I follow, I think I'm going to sit tight with one
exception.  All of the indices are either in short term up trend
channels or horizontal channels and all of them are close to the
bottom of those channels.  That means next week will be very important
to see if the channels hold or not.  I don't want to enter any new
stock positions until I get an indication whether I should go long or
short by the channels holding or breaking.  The exception is really
not an exception, I'm going to put another 10% of my portfolio in
bonds.  With the 10% already in the Dreyfus high yield fund, that will
give me 20% overall in bonds.  My choice for new bond fund is American
Century-Benham Target Maturity 2025 (BTTRX).
      BTTRX at 25.33 is in short, intermediate, and long term up trend
channels.  The Short Term Up Trend Channel (STUTC) top is at 26 1/8
and the bottom at 24 1/8.  It broke out to a new all time high Friday
and has been one of the best performing long bond fund over the last
two years.  The indicators have pulled back a little in the last two
weeks but are still well positive and indicate a strong up trend.  My
personal opinion is that bonds will perform  well for the next six
months at least and I want this as a hedge against the more volatile
stock market.  I won't set a target, but I will open my position
Monday and set my stop just under the STUTC at 23 3/4.
      I'll send a BTTRX.GIF chart to everyone on my email list.  If
you're not on the list and want on, just yell.