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Re: Dow Jones et al

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Great mail Thomas.  I completely agree that the S&P500 and DJIA are
approaching key resistance levels at their old highs.  Here are the
reasons I believe these upcoming tests will fail (he says bravely
sprinting towards the end of the limb ;-):

* The divergence with the NASDAQ - techs continue to be very weak and
are not supporting this blue chip rally.

* The divergence with the Russell 2000 - R2000 is going sideways.

* The divergence with the Utilities - the Utilities have been fading
for the past 2 days and are down again this morning.

The wildcard that might cause these upcoming tests to succeed:

"Irrational Exuberance" breaks out when the long bond breaks below 6%

FWIW: I'll be updating http://coolhistory.com/ChipsCharts at the end
of the day today with charts that show what I'm seeing.

Finally, this is a short term opinion.  I'm long term very bullish on
things, but feel that the markets aren't _yet_ positioned for a strong
long-term breakout to the upside.


---Simianer <Simianer@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Hi all,
> it seems to me, that again we are in a decision phase. While the
S&P500 is 
> approaching itīs old highs, there are hints for both versions, the
"jump over" 
> and the "fall back" version: 
> - The S$P is only less than 1% below the highs, but the DOW needs
much more
>   to work to reach August tops. This non-confirmation seems to be a
>   aspect.
> - But: The Utility Index made significant new highs. It is very
often running 
>   ahead of the DOW, so this could be a hint for a further climb. 
>   The Tranportation Index is also in a short term uptrend, but
heading itīs 
>   old highs (= resistance).
> - Negative Divergences btw. momentum indicators and DOW/S&P show
some weeknes
>   of the present upmove. Shows some probability for a pullback
starting at the
>   old tops of the S&P500. Same is indicated by several resistance
lines in the
>   indicators which couldnīt be broken until now.
> - On the other hand there are some indicators in buy-modes
(Stochastic, MACD).
> - Broader market indicators donīt know what they want: Value Line and 
>   Russell 2000 are presently figthing with their resistances. As
well as NASDAQ.
> Conclusion: I see about same chances for new highs or a pullback for
all market
> sectors. So everybody should watch all signs very carefully and not
be too sure 
> about one direction. 
> The markets should show their mood within the next few days.  ;-)
> Greetings from germany
>               Thomas

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