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All,
NBTY Inc closed below my stop Friday so I'll close my position Monday.
For a replacement, I like Cirrus Logic (CRUS). That will leave me with
open positions in CAV, CHV, CPU, CRUS, GTIS, IOM, LETRX, NPD, NTSC, and OSU
as well as LEAP calls on GTE, MADGF, and TRV.
CRUS at 14 7/8 is in an Intermediate Term Up Trend Channel (ITUTC)
with the top at 19 1/8 and the bottom at 14. CRUS made an all time high of
61 1/8 in September 95, then went into a Long Term Down Trend Channel
(LTDTC) to a low of 9 in April of this year. It broke out of the LTDTC in
June and started the current ITUTC. It hit the bottom of the ITUTC for the
third time Thursday and bounced up a little Friday. Part of the
fundamentals look good with a PSR of 1.06, Debt/Equity of 0.93 and 15%
insider ownership. The bad news is that revenues have been dropping and
earnings are negative. However, I'm looking for a turn around here. The
revenue drop has slowed and earnings are turning up with a 4 cent gain in
the June quarter. The ITUTC is well defined and I got a MetaStock
ROC,ADXR,S/C buy signal in late July. This has all the appearances of a
fallen angel that is starting to take off again. If I'm right, now is a
great time to get in. If I'm wrong, we are close to the bottom of the
channel and will be stopped out with only a small loss. I'll set my target
at just under the all time high at 61 and my stop just under the ITUTC at
13 3/4.
I'll send CRUS.GIF charts to everyone on my email list. If you aren't
on the list and want on, just yell. The only obligation is participation
in this email forum.
Jim
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