|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
tvk2@xxxxxxxx wrote:
>
> Most of commodities have been in doldrums past two weeks, but here are
> some items you might like to check. #1 How about the Dec wheat? Been
> going sideways several days but now it's sitting on short term support
> 367.61.
> Second support at 364.50. So, it looks like its ready to go up.. Put
> in a buy order at 365--366 in that neighborhood. Its clear for a run all
> the way up to 395.28 before hitting any resistance. Chance of making a
> couple grand. Just calling it to your attention. #2 Take a look at
> the Dec Corn. That's a nice sideways channel of over ten days with a
> bottom at about 265. Some at 262. 263, 264. Ready to break out to go
> short. Looks like an opportunity. #3 Take a look at Nov Beans. Another
> good example of a 13 day channel. So, there you are-- nothing fancy--
> just using ye ol' metastock charts in their purist form. Something we
> might play on Monday. Not predicting anything== just calling it to your
> attention. Won't take but a few days to prove the ol' man right or
> wrong. Good luck. T.C.
I had just finished reviewing my charts when I checked my mail and saw
your post. Since I had just looked at the same commodities with a
slightly different outcome, I thought I'd post my analysis and solicite
your feedback.
I finished my first year of trading about a month ago and was only
breakeven. (We won't count the money I've spent on books, software, and
data feeds:) I seem to make money in option straddles and then give it
back whenever I try to pick a direction. Over the last month I've
completely re-analized my directional picking techniques (meaning
grossly simplified.) Right now I am only looking at trendline breaks and
bounces with an oscillator for confirmation.
#1 - Dec Wheat
Wheat broke down below a short term trend line on 9/8, retraced and
bounced back off the same trendline on 9/10. I show a triple divergence
on 7/25, 8/8, and 8/29. It also broke down below a medium term trendline
on 9/15, retraced and bounced back off the same trendline on 9/18. I was
planning to go short on Monday open.
#2 - Dec Corn
Corn broke down below a short term trend line on 9/5, retraced and
bounced back off the same trendline on 9/12.
I show a triple divergence on 7/15, 8/4, and 8/22. It also broke down
below a medium term trendline on 9/16. I went short on 9/17.
#3 - Nov Beans
Soybeans bounced off a long term downward trendline on 9/18. On the 19th
it closed above both the medium term and short term upward trendlines. I
saw this a an ever tightening triangle. The oscillator was bouncing
around and has settled at 50. With option implied volatility as low as
it is compared to the past year and 1/2, I was planning on purchasing a
strangle (Jan 650 call and 625 put.)
It's great to hear from other commodity traders on the list. I'm looking
forward to hearing other thoughts on these charts.
David.
|