Intel (INTC): Off to the races.

[gordon@xxxxxxxxxxx (Guy Gordon)]

I have posted my chart of Intel Corp. (INTC) on my web site at
http://www.white-crane.com/intc.htm.

More discussion of Raff channels:

With a PE of only 23 INTC is cheap compared to other big-cap growth
companies, (like MSFT at PE=53).  EVERYONE should own some INTC.

INTC is one of my core holdings (11% of my portfolio.)  I don't trade
it;  I just hold onto it.  I have a 231% gain since Sept. 95, and my
basis is $27.  

While I don't trade INTC, I do watch it, and sometimes trade options.

Starting from the left of the chart, INTC is rising in a channel that
started back in July 96 (the previous correction.)  On this chart the
straight blue line is support and the straight red line is resistance.
These are hand-drawn, not Raff lines.  Sometimes I prefer hand-drawn
channels because of problems with the MetaStock implementation of Raff
Regression Channels.

Notice the green arrow pointing down at the end of Jan 96.  At this
point I was getting nervous (about the DOW and S&P500, not about
INTC).  I moved half my portfolio into cash, and bought puts on INTC
and MSFT.  The green up arrow in March is where I sold the puts.

INTC then started a new uptrend channel, that was rudely interrupted
on 5/30 by bad news from the Intel conference call.  Note the sharp
drop giving investors no time to act.

I now draw a Raff channel from 1/24/97 to 7/10/97 (dark blue).  This
channel is perfectly horizontal (by design.)  I tracks the 50-day
Moving Average OK.

Notice that INTC has now climbed above that Raff channel and is
sitting on it.  (Resistance becomes Support.   Memorize that.)

So I have drawn a NEW short-term Raff channel from 6/10 trough 7/31
(light blue).  This one is designed to be parallel to the 26-day MA.
INTC is resting on the middle line of this new channel.

My conclusion:  It's off to the races again for INTC.  I expect INTC
to follow that new Raff channel up, up, up, for the next six months at
least.

So... How about some criticism here, folks.  Am I full of it?  Or am I
about to re-double my Intel investment?