Hello Jim!
I would cycle analysis is more of an art than a science; I
think
even those who follow them would often wonder if they are there -
at
least at times. However, I might agree with you on the
'static'
comment, as the cycles that I track always have an average
variance
of plus or minus 20% in either direction.
A similar notion
could be applied to Elliott-wave; it is more of an
art than a science - but
there are some who are very adept with it.
As far as statistical validity,
I would doubt you would find any hard
evidence of that in any trading
method (other than something slightly
above-average). if there were
something that worked 100% of the time,
then please let us all know as we
would like to use it :-)
as for methodology, I am going to reference
Hurst's 'Profit Magic',
along with Raymond Merriman's book 'Cycles and
Patterns in the market'.
these two are a good starting point for those
interested in cycles. take
what you find useful, discard the rest - and
then add that to what you
come up with yourself. it is certainly an
evolutionary process.
where is Clyde Lee when you need him?
:-)
thanks for the message
Jim