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I get the feeling that those in Aussie related trades have become too
complacent
with China being the one and only driver as a given.
China isn't a given, just like a Santa Klaus Rally isn't a given.
I feel that the current move in commodity prices over the last
two years is a bounce in a bear market.
Will prices go back to the 2001 lows, as a whole, probably not as that
was
an ending of a long period of commodity deflation.
Just as some prices haven't revisited lows from the 1960's.
Even basing in the lower quartile of the price range of the last decade,
is enough to put prices back into historical trading ranges.
Monthly Charts http://mrci.com/pdf/charts.php
Chinese Indexes:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$DJSH
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$SSEC
11/11/09 Data
* Oct Industrial Output +16.1% from Year Earlier (F'cast +15.5%)
* China Jan-Oct Urban Fixed-Asset Investment +33.1% on Yr (F'cast
+33.5%)
* China Says Oct Retail Sales +16.2% on Year Earlier (F'cast +15.8%)
* China Says October Consumer Prices -0.5% on Year Ago (F'cast -0.4%)
* China Says Oct Producer Prices -5.8% on Year Ago (F'cast -5.0%)
* China C/Bank Says Banks Extended 253bln Yuan of New Rmb Loans In
October
* China Says Oct M2 Money Supply +29.4% on Year Ago (F'cast +29.5%)
* China Says End-Oct Outstanding Yuan Loans +34.2% from Year Ago
(F'cast +34.4%)
AUD .9324
NZD .7439
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