Hi Jim...........keep up the good work..........thanks
for turning me
on to the Yahoo - MarketTimers group. I enjoyed the Cycles article that
appeared in the New Yorker. It can be Googled if you add the name
Martin Armstrong or Bill Erman of Ermanometry.
All the best, Gerryb.........a Gann Fan from way back!
-----Original Message-----
From: Jim Ross <jrosscpa@xxxxxxx>
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sun, Oct 18, 2009 1:40 pm
Subject: RE: [RT] Regarding a top
I take that rant as a disapproval of my posting a fully documented
technical speculation.
** they are not predictable with a high degree of accuracy, more than 3
or 4 days in the future**
Then I should burn my Gann, EWP, Spiral Calendar, Mandelbrot “The
Misbehavior of Markets”, Taleb “The Black Swan”, Edwards and Magee
“Technical Analysis of Stock Trends”…… I’ve wasted my life.
Epistemic arrogance, look it up in The Black Swan. And while at it
look up undue reliance on Gaussian methods, the major point of the book.
Jim
From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
On Behalf Of Jim White
Sent: Sunday, October 18, 2009 1:04 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Regarding a top
I believe freely traded markets are like chaotic systems and , just
like the weather, they are not predictable with a high degree of
accuracy, more than 3 or 4 days in the future.
Obviously there are economic cycles with generally fixed periods that
influence market direction however the relevant periods are best
measured in weeks or months with error distributions that make them
poor trade decision tools, at least from my perspective.
When I offer an opinion on this forum it is based on tools with
reliability ratings based on hundreds if not thousands of cases over
extended periods of time. Forecasts based on small sample sets are , in
my mind, just guesses and not advised for trading decisions.
Calculations showing correlation of events are meaningless unless
backed up by a statically significant sample size. Fibonacci
calculations, for example, have been shown to be unreliable when
considering large sample sets.
Also, there should be a stated methodology behind the calculations that
explains why they are relevant.
All that being said, I offer the following about the coming week.
After three days of trend change warnings and a Near Impulse Date of
10/14 for all, the stock indexes reversed on Friday although only the
NASDAQ and Russell closed below Thursday lows, confirming the reversal.
Generally we can expect a three - four day persistence in trend
following the reversal. For Monday I generated 36 sell signals for the
NAZ 100 and only 6 buy signals supporting expectations of a lower
low.My next Near Impulse date shared by all indexes is 10/27 so we
may
expect a downward continuation until then. We shall see.
Jim White
Pivot Research & Trading Co.
PivotTrader.com