M Syed, I appreciate your insights and
sharing.
Here’s a pattern for you. I
first posted this speculation on Slope of Hope, markettimers@xxxxxxxxxxx,
yelnick, spiritoftruth on September 25. I call it the Sirial Calendar
1929-1987 analogy. It predicts 4 dates in 2009 that MAY replicate the
same 4 dates that occurred in 1929 and 1987 that were the focus of Chris
Carolan’s book, The Spiral Calendar. The four dates are computed
very simply according to Chris “Spiral” intervals published in his
book (Fibonacci based intervals counted in synodic periods of 29.5306 days).
http://www.screencast.com/users/Virginia_Jim/folders/Jing/media/e78ae4c6-8eb2-4977-b8d6-001fe77b25c8
The first of 4 dates was July 11, 2009
and was a perfect “hit”. It was a significant low. If
you recall, on the date of that low, everyone….everyone was watching the
infamous Head and Shoulders TOP. It was being shown on CNBC. EWI
was publishing it. It ordained that the market would re test the March
2009 lows. But the July 11 date indicated that it was THE low before the
next date which would be a top…and that date is October 16, 2009,
yesterday.
Keep in mind any projection can never be
more accurate than the projection interval. So, July 11 was the
projection +- one day. And, July 11 was a Saturday. So, I’d
have said that significant low could have occurred on Friday July 10, Thursday
July 9, Monday July 13 or Tuesday July 14 and the model would have been credited
with a successful prediction. Similarly, I’d say three dates would
satisfy the October 16 prediction; Thursday October 15, Friday October 16 or
Monday October 19.
Well, October 15 had a new recovery high
in the DOW and SPX. I’d say that satisfies the model. There could
be a remaining high according to the model on Monday or it might not
occur. The model remains valid either way; it simply projected the final
highest high on October 16 +- 1 day so it could have a further high
Monday. Now, if Tuesday October 17 has a further recovery high, I’d
say the model is bust. But for now, the model has predicted TWO monument
dates in 2009 that occurred in BOTH 1929 and 1987.
Pure numerology. Nothing
more. If I gave these four dates to you with the implications in June 2009,
what would be the probability you’d give a numerological savant that
they’d occur? One in infinity. When the first date worked,
what would the probability be? Well maybe a little less worse, say one in
Taleb’s 5000 lifetimes (of the universe). But now we’ve
tentatively got 2 out of 4 dates are a success. It’s got me
interested. A new high AFTER Monday trashes the whole thing, but until
then it’s a “hmmmmm.” Here’s the implied analog
in chart form aligned for the lowest low in each of the 3 years:
http://www.screencast.com/users/Virginia_Jim/folders/Jing/media/07742629-a2d9-4b56-a3e5-83f0d23443c0
Interesting stuff,
Jim
From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of tpmods
Sent: Saturday, October 17, 2009 8:35 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Failure of studies/patterns
I am seeing bearish calls in our group since last 30 days or so,needless to
say all those bearish calls gone wrong predicting market trend and stopped
out,then next time they came up with other patterns and gave sell calls again
failed.
So we need to do self check now why we failed,this helps us in long term and
increase our chances for our future trades profitibility.
take this in right spirit.
Bye and good luck.