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ISEE call/put initial position index clocked 166 Friday on top of 160 on the
17th and 151 on the 10th. These are some of the highest readings in the
last year and is following a pattern similar to that occurring in December
2007 directly before the January 2008 downdraft. That's not to say this
little rally won't forge forward a tad more with an even higher ISEE, but it
should make every bull take pause. Outlying ISEE's have been nice warning
signal's this last year. CPC has just registered some extreme low levels
(bearish) as well.
Many believe this rally is the 4th wave of 'a' from October 2007 and others
believe it to be a longer duration, higher level 'b' wave with the 'a' wave
having completed November 21. The former would require an imminent 5th wave
that tests the November lows (truncates) or sets new lows (SPX mid 600s).
The latter 'b' wave would be more durable than the 4th wave, lasting in to
March '09. The ISEE extremes point me in the direction of the imminent
downdraft with a recovery beginning near the inauguration to start the new
presidents honeymoon that ends mid March.
Ideally, I'd like to see one spike up that might complete an ending diagonal
'c' wave in NDX, provide an even more conclusively higher ISEE index and
lower CPC.
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