Using a Maximum Entropy approach to determining the cycles
in the DOW from 1920 till now indicates that a 34.3 year and
an 8.3 year cycle are more prominant than the 15.8 year.
With the indicated 3 cycles I use a "strategy" which I wrote to
obtain the most profitable alignment of the phases of these 3
cycles combined (see red/blue/red/ ... curve). The "profit"
(DOW points) going long when plot is blue and short when plot
is red if almost 20,000 points seeming to point out that trading
the cycles would be slightly better than buy and hold.
Clyde
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Clyde Lee SYTECH Corporation
7910 Westglen Phone: 713.783.9540
Suite 105 Fax: 713.783.1092
Houston, TX 77063 www.theswingmachine .com
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----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, November 09, 2008 3:34 PM
Subject: RE: [RT] Market status
To me the most dominant cycle in the market via the Dow is 16 years (see attached chart).
As to impulse dates, my analysis all depends upon which index one chooses. For the Russell 2000 and NYSE I get a 11/13 impulse date; for the Dow, a 11/14 impulse date; for the NASDAQ a 11/17 impulse date; and for the S&P I really get no outstanding date. Since 11/14 is the middle date I would guess that either the 13th or 14th to be a intermediate top or bottom and either the 14th or 17th to be either the start of a leg up or down.