[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]

Re: [RT] Market status



PureBytes Links

Trading Reference Links

The simple superposition of 40 and 30 years cycles looks (up purple curve):
 
 
 
It differs from the second curve on the previous e-mail. That one was calculated through neural net.
 
Regarding cycle analysis and its reliability: this is a long story, only intensive backtesting can prove or disapprove anything there. Select instruments that are forecastable, calculate forecast horizon .... I wrote about this issue here: http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Articles/Saga_2/
 
 
Best regards.
Sergey.
 
----- Original Message -----
From: Jim White
Sent: Sunday, November 09, 2008 11:01 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Market status

Static cycle synthesis has never been proven to be a reliable forecasting technique. Nevertheless, your second picture seems to agree with Dent - a high in mid 2009 to early 2010 then a move to new lows.
How do you see the result as different?
Jim


From: SergeyT <timingsolution@rogers.com>
To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sunday, November 9, 2008 5:15:16 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Market status

Hello, Jim
 
I tried to play with long term cycles a lot.
 
Look how it works. Here you can see two major cycles pointed by Harry Dent red - 40 years demographic cycle and blue - 30 years commodity cycle together with Dow (log scale):
 
 
 
 
Now I perform the formal math analysis for these two cycles adjusting them to Dow and got this:
 
 
 
As you see the result is different.
 
Best regards.
Sergey.
 
----- Original Message -----
From: Jim White
Sent: Sunday, November 09, 2008 7:50 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Market status

The overall market is experiencing a bear market rally - I have BUY permission on both weekly and daily for all index ETF's (DIA,SPY,QQQQ, IWM). The daily Near Impulse shows most likely key dates of 11/21- 11/25. Other dates to watch are 11/14 and 11/18.
On a longer term basis I have become a convert to the demographic- econometrics of Harry S. Dent whom I have previously referenced. Mr. Dent has just published a video on his web site outlining what he sees out through 2010. In summary he sees a rally, as a result of all the money stimulus, until about late 2009 - early 2010. Inflation will begin to increase dramatically after the lag and bond prices will plummet. He forecasts a long term deflationary depression starting 2010. The last chance to protect assets will be during this coming rally. I urge everyone to review his work at Hsdent.com
In the mean time I am having a lot of fun trading the intraday FOREX market. The combination of my new Trade Permission and Signal generator are yielding about 80% reliability of profitable trades  although the data set is not large enough yet to draw major conclusions.
 
Best Regards,
 
Jim White


From: Ben <profitok@xxxxxxxxxx net>
To: realtraders@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Saturday, November 8, 2008 12:20:26 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Market status

Hello Jim
can you give an update?
i see bullish divergence at last week lows in many  indicatores
Ben
----- Original Message -----
From: Jim White
Sent: Wednesday, November 05, 2008 10:22 AM
Subject: [RT] Market status

The week ending 10/10 has set the criteria to judge this current up move. It was a huge range week marking the low of the crisis panic. For the last four weeks we have been trading within this range and perhaps this week we will close above the high of last week. Caution is in order however. Until the market accepts prices higher than the high of the 10/10 week, we do not have a long term reversal and it is not safe to take long term long positions.
 
Jim White
Pivot Research & Trading Co.



No virus found in this incoming message.
Checked by AVG - http://www.avg. com
Version: 8.0.175 / Virus Database: 270.8.6/1769 - Release Date: 11/5/2008 7:17 AM


__._,_.___

Your email settings: Individual Email|Traditional
Change settings via the Web (Yahoo! ID required)
Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest | Switch to Fully Featured
Visit Your Group | Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use | Unsubscribe

__,_._,___