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--- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, rosow@xxx wrote:
>Gene,
My take is the same. I have been doing the litmus test in several
places primarily the retail sector.
I was visiting Prescott AZ, during Thanksgiving and black Friday was
weak at best in the mall. By early evening the mall had cleared out.
It looked like a regular shopping day. That seems to be pretty
unusual activity for one of the busiest shopping days of the year.
I drove by the local Wall Mart in Temecula and they have fewer
containers in the back of the store than usual. Last Christmas the
holding area was packed and overflowing with containers. They
probably have a 1/3 less than last year. Who knows maybe the manager
is more organized but I believe the writing is on the wall the
recession is here, the government is adjusting the numbers to make
them look benign. But is it's only a matter of time before this thing
busts loose.
We are certainly seeing it in my business. Things have been slowing
down since August and after attending the Performance Racing Industry
show last week, many of the exhibitors are feeling the same slower
sales patterns.
Richard
>
> Gene,
> I'm in Jupiter, FL and work in Palm Beach Gardens. What local
tavern are
> you talking about??
>
> Lenny
>
> In a message dated 12/10/2007 8:19:34 A.M. Eastern Standard Time,
> gene@xxx writes:
>
>
> Hello All,
> For what itâ??s worth, I just came back from my yearly â??solo
weekâ?? in
> Florida, Singer Island to be exact. I like to just go and detox,
hang out at local
> establishments, stick my feet in the ocean and clear my mind,
while staying as
> far away from the upper end hang outs as possible. My observations
were a
> little disquieting and Iâ??d like to share them with you.
> The taverns I like to hang out in have always been among the most
popular,
> usually crowded to capacity on any weekend night, including
Sunday, and still
> at least half-full on a Wednesday. One of them happens to be have
one of the
> greatest Karaoke stages Iâ??ve ever seen. Very elaborate stage
with very
> high-end speakers and mics and even lighting. Very popular DJ,
people coming from
> 100 miles away to get there. This is very a very locals oriented
place. Iâ??ve
> been going there now every year at the same time since 1999.
> Last year, it started to change, fewer people, but still a good
time. But
> this year, I was in total shock at what I saw. I came in first on
a Wednesday,
> and Mel, the DJ Iâ??ve known for years, tells me â??Gene, I think
I gotta hang
> it up soon. Thereâ??s no traffic anymore. My nightly fees are
being cut. Theyâ??
> ve cut out Sundays and it looks like Wednesday is going too. I
canâ??t live like
> this. â?? He was right about the traffic. The place was like an
empty bowling
> alley. I had to wait an hour past the normal start time just to
get one more
> singer in the joint.
> Then on Friday night, I returned and it was the same thing,
perhaps 10% of
> the normal crowd size for a Friday. Then came Saturday. I go to
pull into the
> parking lot at the regular time, and there were no cars around AT
ALL except
> the employees. I was stunned. I went in, and Iâ??ve never seen so
few people in
> that bar, ever, on any night, in all these years. It was worse
than the
> previous Wednesday, and you never see that. The jukebox, which is
usually
> cranking until the Karaoke starts, was silent. The employees and
bartenders looks
> rattled and scared, roaming around aimlessly.
> From my conversations with them, they told me the same story over
and over.
> Nobody has any money to go out and have a good time anymore
(remember, this
> is a very local joint, not some here today, gone tomorrow tourist
hang out).
> Their customers all tell the same story, that gas is too
expensive, food is
> too expensive, and their mortgages are swallowing up all their
money. They canâ??
> t afford to go out.
> This particular bar is also one of the rare ones in the area that
closes at
> 5 AM, therefore, it becomes a bartenders bar after all the other
places close
> up at 2 or 3 AM. They tell me that this crowd is gone as well. The
other
> bartenders and waitressâ??s business is so bad, they have no tips,
therefore no
> money to use after quitting time. So this is not just the tale of
some dump
> that fell under the radar. This IS the place to go around these
parts. I think it
> â??s a hell of a barometer, one that is not being picked up on in
the press.
> So what is this saying? If the majority of the populace cannot
afford to go
> out for a good time anymore, and/or thereâ??s no tourists coming
around, are we
> already in recession and why arenâ??t we hearing more about this?
Even 9/11 or
> the hurricanes didnâ??t affect business this much. What I saw was
truly
> outside the bell curve. Where else is this happening? These people
are truly
> frightened for their livelihoods.
> This may just be a localized phenom, but I wonder about that. To
quote my
> friend Mel, â??People I know, older couples up north tell me they
canâ??t afford
> to come down here anymore. They got too much to worry about back
up north.â??
> One more Mel quote: â??My friends that work at local Publix
supermarkets say
> the average â??ticketâ?? per customer is way down, as if theyâ??re
getting very
> selective in what theyâ??re buying.â??
> Just one manâ??s observations. Anybody else out there have any
anecdotal
> evidence?
>
> Gene
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> **************************************See AOL's top rated recipes
> (http://food.aol.com/top-rated-recipes?NCID=aoltop00030000000004)
>
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